Real world oil prices are far higher than the figures seen on TV news reports

When the first US and Israeli missiles hit Iran more than a month ago, an oil price of $150 per barrel was considered a doomsday prediction. But the price of physical Brent crude is already a hair’s breadth from $150, while the futures price hasn’t caught up yet.

The Brent front-month futures price – which serves as a barometer for 80% of the world’s crude oil – has sat above $100 per barrel for several weeks. Rising and falling as US President Donald Trump changes the war’s aims and end date, it closed above $109 on Thursday, already higher than at any point since the Ukraine conflict escalated in early 2022.

But to understand just how severe the current crisis is becoming, it’s important to look at the Dated Brent price. Only widely monitored during times of market disruption, this represents the actual on-the-spot price that purchasers are paying for Brent cargoes in the North Sea. On Thursday, it reached $141.37, a level unseen since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis.

This speaks to a severe supply shortage on the ground as buyers are willing to pay a huge premium to get their hands on barrels, not in the near future, but right now. 

What is the significance of the huge spread?

What newspapers and broadcasters typically show is the front-month Brent price: bought by traders for delivery on a specific date the following month. This is the most liquid and widely quoted benchmark. Importantly, pricing reflects future expectations, so in this case investors are betting on at least some kind of deescalation and denouement in the Persian Gulf.  

The front-month is also the domain of speculators who have no intention of ever receiving any oil: instead they seek to take advantage of price shifts and exit their positions before delivery. The front-month price does of course reflect physical realities – but it’s also somewhat financialized. 

The fact that actual physical Brent crude is moving at prices $32 higher than the front-month indicates that the physical supply of oil is extremely tight. Typically, the spread between the front-month contract and Dated Brent is less than $2, although in a tight market it can drift somewhat higher. What we are seeing now is highly abnormal. This higher Dated Brent price isn’t the result of hedge funds or momentum traders bidding up the price. This is what is changing hands on the ground for real barrels. 

The epicenter of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz. A lot depends on what happens in this chokepoint. Less than 40km wide at its narrowest point, just under a third of the world’s seaborne oil transits the strait on its way from Middle Eastern producers to global markets. 

Once a free international waterway, the strait has been turned into a de-facto toll road overseen by the Iranian military. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) decides which vessels are allowed through, with limited numbers of Chinese, Indian, Pakistani, and South African ships making the passage in recent weeks. Daily transits have fallen from around 130 before the war, to low single figures last month, and around a dozen this week.

Why isn’t front-month Brent trading closer to the spot market?

Based on the price difference, the Brent futures market is still relatively sanguine about the prospects for a resolution. Some analysts, however, believe the market isn’t fully reckoning with the supply shortage that is now driving spot prices through the roof. There is also the typical internet chatter about the futures market being manipulated to keep some kind of lid on oil prices. In other words, the big spread is garnering a lot of attention. 

Meanwhile, there is no sign that normal traffic will resume in the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon. US President Donald Trump has swung between declaring the passage open, telling shipping companies to “have courage” and sail through it regardless, vowing that the US will open it, and telling his allies to deal with the closure themselves. The messaging, and Trump’s timeline for an end to the conflict, changes day by day.

Looking at other benchmarks, there are signs of a deepening crisis. Dubai and Omani oil is now selling for well above $150, reflecting the difficulty these Gulf nations have in exporting their product, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – priced in landlocked Oklahoma – surpassed Brent by $3 on Thursday. This indicates that traders predict further uncertainties with the supply of seaborne Brent, and are pivoting toward American crude instead. 

Additionally, the WTI crude prompt spread (price difference between the two nearest contracts) widened to more than $16 per barrel on Thursday, the largest premium on record. This type of widening spread is often due to short-sellers who had bet on a price drop (in this case due to a quick end to the war) getting squeezed and buying back contracts to close their positions, in turn driving up front-month prices.

How high will oil go?

The vast spread between what hedge fund traders see on their Bloomberg terminals and what buyers are paying right now is a glaring red flag, suggesting a massive supply crunch. Physical oil prices are closing in on the psychological barrier of $150, and analysts have readjusted their worst case scenario predictions, with CNN declaring on Thursday that should the conflict drag on until June, a front-month price of $200 “isn’t as crazy as it sounds.” Left unsaid is the fact that at a front-month price of $200, the spot price would almost certainly be even higher.

Zooming out from Brent and WTI, there are dozens of different oil prices, representing more than 100 different blends of crude, their spot prices, and their varying futures contracts. All are higher than they were in February, and for the average person around the world the result is the same: the war on Iran has made fuel, food, and basic necessities more expensive, and life tougher.

Global recession is already inevitable this year, with energy-importing countries being hit the hardest.

This will become clear to many by June.

— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) April 2, 2026

“Global recession is already inevitable this year, with energy-importing countries being hit the hardest,” Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev warned on Thursday. “This will become clear to many by June.”

New Israeli permit rules have put historic church-run schools and their West Bank teachers in Jerusalem at risk

Christian schools in Jerusalem are facing a growing crisis after Israel moved to restrict West Bank teachers from working in the city. The decision affects more than 200 educators across 15 historic institutions, raising fears that some schools could be forced to close due to a shortage of qualified local staff.

Church officials warn the move – which they consider politically motivated – could have wider consequences for the Christian presence in Jerusalem, while teachers say it threatens their livelihoods and ability to access the city.

The restrictions follow a 2025 bill targeting Palestinian educators trained in West Bank universities – a justification disputed by those affected.

RT’s Charlotte Dubenskij reports from Jerusalem:

Exchanges of fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah have been increasing along the border

The IDF has erected an Israeli flag beside a UN peacekeeping position in southern Lebanon, a move that could draw fire on peacekeepers, the body has warned.

The incident comes amid escalating exchanges between Israeli forces and Lebanon-based Hezbollah along the border, which have increasingly drawn UN troops into the line of fire. In recent days, three Indonesian members of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) were killed in two separate incidents and another peacekeeper was wounded by a stray bullet.

At a UN press briefing on Thursday, spokesman Stephane Dujarric said peacekeepers had demanded that the flag be removed after it was raised near a position by the village of Kfar Kila. He added that Israeli forces had expanded their incursions west of the UN-demarcated Blue Line, with tanks and clashes reported in Sector West.

The flag “undermines the perception of UNIFIL’s impartiality and risks drawing fire towards peacekeepers amid the ongoing clashes that we are seeing,” Dujarric told reporters, urging all parties to avoid any action that could further endanger the mission.

Kfar Kila is a Lebanese border village where Israeli forces have been operating amid clashes with Hezbollah, and is reportedly among the areas considered by the IDF for demolition as part of a proposed security zone targeting militant infrastructure.

This is a picture taken by a UN peacekeeper at their base in Lebanon, showing IDF soldiers raising an israeli flag, the day after they killed three UN peacekeepers and wounded others

Israel cannot continue to be treated as a full member of the UN. This’s what the UN Charter says pic.twitter.com/sYkAFoEcxW

— Mohamad Safa (@mhdksafa) April 2, 2026

A photo purporting to show the flag was shared on X by Mohamad Safa, a Lebanese diplomat and UN civil society representative. He said the image, taken by a peacekeeper at a UN base in Lebanon, showed an Israeli flag raised by IDF soldiers, “the day after they killed three UN peacekeepers and wounded others.” 

Initial findings in a probe into the deaths of two of the Indonesians reportedly point to a roadside explosion that struck their convoy near the Lebanese town of Bani Haiyyan, while the third peacekeeper was killed when a projectile reportedly hit a UNIFIL base near the village of Aadchit al-Qusayr.

Russia has firmly condemned the attacks on the UNIFIL contingent, with UN envoy Vassily Nebenzia saying Moscow expects the UN to identify those responsible.

UNIFIL, established in 1978 following an Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon, currently fields around 7,500 peacekeepers from dozens of countries. Under a Security Council decision adopted last year, its mandate is set to expire at the end of 2026, with a full withdrawal planned for 2027 when its positions will be handed over to Lebanese government forces.

Israel launched a military operation against Hezbollah in early March after the militant group carried out waves of strikes against the Jewish state in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a joint US-Israeli operation against Iran.

Colorado legislators have passed a bill allowing lawsuits against therapists who advise a traditional sexual orientation

Lawmakers in Colorado have approved amendments to the state’s ban on “conversion therapy,” a practice aimed at changing an individual’s non-traditional sexual orientation or gender identity through counseling.

This comes despite a US Supreme Court ruling blocking enforcement of the state’s ban on such therapy on free-speech grounds.

Conversion therapy has long been criticized by medical experts and advocacy groups as ineffective and harmful – particularly for gay children of conservative parents seeking such intervention. Roughly half of US states, including Colorado since 2019, have banned the practice.

On Thursday, Colorado’s Democrat-led House passed a measure allowing people claiming harm from conversion therapy to sue therapists. The change mirrors legislation adopted in 2021 that removed time limits for bringing claims related to child sexual abuse.

State Representative Karen McCormick, who sponsored the bill and is the parent of a transgender child, said the amendment would give individuals more time to process trauma and come forward. “We don’t want them shut out of the legal system,” she said.

The legislation comes two days after the Supreme Court ruled in favor of a Christian counselor who challenged the ban on free speech grounds. Kaley Chiles argued that the restriction interfered with her ability to discuss issues of sexuality and relationships with clients within a religious framework.

“Each American enjoys an inalienable right to speak his mind and a faith in the free marketplace of ideas as the best means for finding truth,” Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote for the majority opinion. “Laws like Colorado’s, which suppress speech based on viewpoint, represent an egregious assault on both commitments.”

The Supreme Court's 8-1 decision, which included support from two liberal justices, does not affect existing restrictions on physical or medical interventions, such as electroconvulsive therapy, which remain regulated or prohibited in Colorado. Instead, the case will return to a lower court for further examination.

The developments reflect a wider national debate over LGBTQ-related policies versus free speech rights. Opposition to progressive social agenda – denounced as “wokism” by conservative critics – was a key factor in President Donald Trump’s election in 2024.

The bloc’s ideology has left it unprepared for long-lasting shocks, Kirill Dmitriev has argued

The EU has failed to offer any real solutions to the current energy crisis, Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev has said, arguing that Brussels is too late to start preparing for a supply shock.

The remarks came in response to EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen’s interview with the Financial Times on Friday in which he said that the US-Israeli war on Iran was likely to have “structural, long-lasting effects” on the bloc’s energy security. He added Brussels was preparing for “worst-case scenarios” and “looking at all possibilities,” including releasing strategic oil reserves and possibly rationing jet fuel or diesel.

“Still only warnings, NO REAL FIXES,” Dmitriev, who serves as President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for investment and economic cooperation, wrote on X on Friday.

“EU warns 15 YEARS TOO LATE it is not prepared for a ‘long-lasting energy shock.’ EU failed to diversify energy flows, guided by Russophobic, Green, and woke ideology,” he added.

🚨EU warns 15 YEARS TOO LATE it is not prepared for a “long-lasting energy shock.” EU failed to diversify energy flows, guided by Russophobic, Green, and woke ideology.

Still only warnings, NO REAL FIXES. Only ideas: limit price hikes at the pump to 1/day in 🇩🇪 & cut energy use. https://t.co/T3XWMvWo3l

— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) April 3, 2026

The EU implemented a set of energy reforms in 2009–2011 aimed at accelerating the transition to renewable energy and diversifying away from single suppliers, such as Russia.

In his interview, Jorgensen ruled out a return to Russian energy imports, insisting that there would be no change to EU plans to end imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of 2026. The US and “other partners” will provide additional supplies, he said.

Brussels will also phase out Russian pipeline gas imports by autumn 2027. Russia still accounted for an estimated 13% of total EU gas imports in 2025, according to official data.

President Vladimir Putin warned last month that Russia may withdraw from the EU gas market and redirect its supplies to “emerging markets” without waiting for Brussels’ ban to take effect. The energy crisis in the EU is the result of the “misguided policies” pursued by the bloc over “many years,” Putin said.

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global supply chains and thrown energy markets into turmoil. On Thursday, the price of crude rose to around $111 per barrel, while the price of gas in the EU spiked to around €50 ($58) per MWh, a 56% increase from February.

American officials have confirmed the loss of an F-15 jet, with a rescue and retrieval operation underway, according to Axios

The Iranian military has shot down a US F-35 fight jet over its territory, local media outlets, including the Tasnim news agency, have claimed. American officials confirmed the loss of an F-15 jet and claimed that one pilot has been rescued.

Photos and videos purporting to show the jet’s crash site, including pictures of the debris and an ejected pilot seat have been released. The images show what appears to be a tail fin and other parts of the aircraft with an inscription saying: “US Air Forces in Europe.”

According to The Guardian, the jet could be a part of the US Air Force’s 494th Squadron, based at Royal Air Force base in Lakenheath, UK.

American news media outlet Axios reported, citing its sources, that the downed jet was an F-15 and not the latest generation F-35. According to CBS, one of the jet’s two crew members was rescued, with the search effort still “ongoing.”

Another enemy F-35 hit and downed by our #indigenous defence systems.

Iran is a force to be reckoned with.#Iran#F35#War pic.twitter.com/q1DhkTXrm3

— Consulate General of the I.R. Iran in Mumbai (@IRANinMumbai) April 3, 2026

The Iranian media claimed that the US rescue effort “failed.” The operation involved at least two Black Hawk helicopters and a C-130 Hercules aircraft, Tasnim reported. At least one of the helicopters was allegedly damaged during the operation, with photos published on social media showing grey smoke coming from it.

According to Tasnim, the Iranian military “likely” captured the pilot, who had ejected from the aircraft and landed in western Iran.

Who was looking for this? Turns out the ‘invisible’ seat wasn’t so invisible after all.

Of course, for security reasons, the fate of the pilot can’t be revealed… but isn’t it obvious?#F35#IRAN#War https://t.co/bEW5qqCyip pic.twitter.com/TLpefhxLbv

— Consulate General of the I.R. Iran in Mumbai (@IRANinMumbai) April 3, 2026

The US and Israel began a bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic on February 28. Despite claims by US President Donald Trump that Tehran’s ability to strike back has been severely diminished, Iran has hit American bases throughout the Middle East.

Tehran has claimed shooting down at least two F-35 jets since the start of the war. The American military denied these claims. Satellite imagery, as well as drone and on-scene footage, suggests that the Iranian military managed to hit several US radars in the region, as well as destroy a number of planes, including an E-3 Sentry AWACS command and control aircraft.

Volkswagen is planning to convert one of its factories to produce Iron Dome components

One of Germany’s biggest and most iconic car manufacturers, Volkswagen (VW) and one of Israel’s most well-known arms manufacturers, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, part of the global Rafael Group, are planning to collaborate. If the project is realized, VW will convert one of its German factories in the historic city of Osnabrueck from making automobiles to producing components of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.

There are good reasons why this has raised eyebrows. For one thing, it reflects not only VW’s growing problems, but those of Germany’s vital automobile sector and the German economy as a whole. As the Financial Times has noted, the VW-Rafael project would mark “the highest-profile example yet of the German car industry, where profits have plunged,” trying to save itself by entering the “booming defense sector.”

These plunging profits are due to many factors: Chinese competition; Germany’s failure to keep up with cutting-edge technology, communication infrastructure, and business practices; American sabotage by tariff warfare and filching German companies via subsidies; and last but not least, the horrendous energy costs that the entire EU has inflicted on itself by going to war – by Ukrainian proxy and sanctions – against Russia.

The shift to making things for the military, meanwhile, is just a small part of Germany’s breathtakingly misguided response: Namely, a policy of going into massive public debt – under a so-called conservative – to finance a bizarre form of military Keynesianism that is based on illusions (no, Russia is not about to attack), produces self-reinforcing Russophobia (which makes a return to normality even harder), and won’t work as an economic boost, as even the usually government-aligned Spiegel has admitted.

In short, like a prism, the Osnabrueck plan bundles together many of Germany’s worst – and self-inflicted – problems, and the single silliest idea of how to tackle them.

Yet, there is obviously a whole other dimension to the VW-Rafael project that is even worse: The plan also encapsulates Germany’s complicity with Israel’s crimes, an obstinate policy that is deeply immoral, has twisted Germany’s domestic politics and discourse toward cynical racism, censorship, and authoritarian restrictions on free speech (as a UN report has confirmed), and, moreover, is stupidly shortsighted as well, since it alienates most of the world, and in particular, its rising part in the Global South.

This complicity does not make the VW-Rafael project unique. On the contrary, it is typical for decades of constantly expanding and intensifying collaboration between Israel’s military, technology, and industrial sectors and companies from all over the world, as recently outlined in UN special rapporteur’s Francesca Albanese’s report From Economy of Occupation to Economy of Genocide. Given the many crimes committed not only by the Israeli state, but also large numbers of individual Israelis as well as Israeli institutions and businesses, that in itself is a global scandal.

And yet there it is, so massive that its outlines will have to be sketched in just a few highlights.

Computers, clouds, and AI? IBM, Hewlett Packard, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft – to name only a few – are deeply and profitably involved not merely in doing business with Israel but with the specific business of population control, surveillance, and incarceration. That is, to be precise, the very sharp end of Israel’s apartheid regime imposed on the Palestinians. Apartheid is, of course, a UN-recognized atrocity crime (not just a specific, criminal stage in South Africa’s history). And not only the infernal Palantir but Microsoft as well – with its Azure and Nimbus systems – has directly helped the Israeli military while it carries out genocide.

Demolishing Palestinian homes, roads, wells, public buildings, and all vital infrastructure, in short, the material basis of life? Caterpillar, Hyundai as well as Doosan, and Volvo have all been at Israel’s service, including in the massive, systematic devastation of Gaza that has been part of Israel’s genocide and ethnic cleansing campaign.

But then, Zionism doesn’t only destroy and displace. To be fair, it also builds – namely, illegal settlements on territories that are officially called ‘occupied’ but have in reality been de facto annexed by Israel in its ceaseless, aggressive drive for even more ‘Lebensraum’ in a ‘Greater Israel’ that has never even defined its borders.

And don’t let the Israeli Hasbara propaganda fool you: There is no room for debate here. In 2024, the International Court of Justice, the highest court of the UN, unambiguously confirmed that the Israeli post-1967 occupations, including that of East Jerusalem as well as the exploitation of these territories’ resources, and all settlements – really colonies – there are illegal because of “Israel’s violations, through its policies and practices, of the prohibition on the acquisition of territory by force and the right to self-determination of the Palestinian people.” Israel must not only leave, as the court also made explicit, but provide “full reparations” to the Palestinians.

Unfortunately, making Israel obey the law – or basic moral precepts everyone else recognizes as binding intuitively (Don’t target children with snipers, for instance, or Don’t torture toddlers) – has always been a challenge, not least because of Washington’s criminal support for Israel’s criminal regime. None of this means the law does not apply.

But those companies helping Israel build its settlements and exploit the illegally held territories – such as the German Heidelberg Materials AG with its subsidiary Hanson Israel, Construcciones Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles from Spain, real estate international Keller Williams RealtyLLC, and again, Caterpillar, Hyundai, and Volvo, are all also involved in a very serious crime.

Unfortunately, it would be easy to greatly extend this list of corporate collaboration and complicity with Israel. VW is not alone. Its new project for colluding with Israel is not even a first for the company. A decade ago, VW set up Cymotive Technologies with Israeli partners. And not just any partners, but spooks from the infamous Shin Bet intelligence service. Cymotive focuses on cybersecurity and cars. If you have heard of how extraordinarily proud Israel has been of its heinous weaponization of international supply chains to carry out its 2024 pager attacks in Lebanon – a form of terrorism, as a former CIA director rightly noted – that might give you food for thought while driving. And if you have the misfortune of being aware of one of Israel’s top spies – namely a former head of Mossad – openly bragging of having planted devices for pager-attack-style terrorism and spying all over the world, maybe you will prefer walking.

But then again, maybe there’s less need to worry, as it turns out that Israeli technology – including that produced by Rafael – is not all it is cracked up to be. Consider merely that, as even the Zionist-aligned New York Times has to admit, Israeli missile defenses have not been doing well since Iran has been striking back in earnest against Israeli and American aggression. It is hard to assess the full damage in Israel because its regime practices a censorship blackout, but we know it has been taking bad hits. And then there are those famous Merkava tanks good at smashing through Gaza’s civilians but now being decimated in their invasion of Lebanon, by brave and clearly well-trained but much less well-armed Hezbollah fighters. Guess what company makes the Merkava’s anti-missile defense system? Yes, that would be Rafael. It seems Volkswagen and its Berlin backers have lost not only whatever sense of ethics they have ever had but also quality.

There is something special about the VW-Rafael deal-in-the-making. Obviously, there is the ugly irony of one of Nazi Germany’s main arms makers shifting back to its old business model. Then, while many companies and countries cultivate ties with the genocidal apartheid state of Israel and neglect their legal obligations to stop its crimes, Germany adds the very peculiar hypocrisy of shielding its intense complicity with Israel by abusing the memory of Germany’s own genocide of Europe’s Jews, the Holocaust. It is hard to imagine a greater moral and intellectual perversion.

If Germany had to learn one lesson from its genocides – the Holocaust and that of the Herero and Nama as well – then it was: This crime must never be committed. By no one. Not by Nazis, not by Zionists, either. And it cannot be done to anyone, not to Jews, not to Palestinians – even by Jews. Finally, no one must ever side with the perpetrators. No perpetrators, including Jewish ones.

According to American media, two of the three pilots have been located and brought to safety

Welcome to RT’s live coverage of the US-Israeli war against Iran, which has spread across multiple countries in the Middle East, with missile and drone barrages launched by both sides.

Iran shot down a US fighter jet over its territory on Friday, prompting a rescue operation for the crew, according to US and Iranian media.

According to multiple outlets citing US officials, one of the two crew members of the twin-seat F-15E Strike Eagle has been rescued, while the whereabouts and status of the second remain unknown. Although Iran claimed it had downed a newer F-35 aircraft, analysts say that images of the wreckage, including an ejection seat, are consistent with an F-15.

A second US military aircraft, a single-seat A-10 Thunderbolt II, managed to leave Iranian airspace before its pilot ejected and was rescued, US media reported.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to step up strikes on Iran, saying Iranian power plants could be targeted next. The announcement came just hours after US forces hit the country’s tallest highway bridge linking Tehran and Karaj, rendering it inoperable.

“Our Military… hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants! New Regime leadership knows what has to be done, and has to be done fast!”

Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari responded, warning of immediate retaliation if Washington follows through.

“If the US proceeds with its threats regarding Iran’s power plants, immediate retaliatory actions will be taken,” he said in a video address, adding that Israeli energy and IT infrastructure – as well as regional companies with American shareholders – would face ”complete and utter annihilation.”

The video featured footage of the Stargate UAE project, a major AI infrastructure hub under construction in Abu Dhabi, part of a US-backed initiative led by OpenAI. Zolfaghari said Iran would ”do whatever it takes” to defend its interests, suggesting these projects could become targets.

USAF HC-130J and HH-60G Pave Hawks on a deep combat search and rescue for the downed F-15 Strike Eagle crew in Iran. pic.twitter.com/vhCqUupLuz

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 3, 2026

Earlier, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed ”in the long term” to US and Israeli ships. Trump urged Tehran to ”make a deal before it is too late.” Iranian officials have denied they are seeking a ceasefire or engaging in talks.

Latest developments:

• Trump said he hopes that the pilot of a downed US aircraft will not be captured or harmed by Iranian forces.

• Israel reportedly canceled some planned strikes on Iran to avoid interfering with the ongoing rescue operation.

• An Iranian drone struck Kuwait’s Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery, while the debris from an intercepted UAV set fire to the UAE’s largest gas processing hub, Habshan, authorities in the Gulf state have reported.

• Iran has refused a 48-hour ceasefire offer from the US, delivered via a third country, according to Fars news agency. Indirect attempts to secure an armistice have “reached a dead end,” according to the WSJ.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said strikes on civilian infrastructure, including bridges, would not force Iran to surrender, calling them a sign of “defeat and moral collapse.”

Follow our live coverage below for continuous updates. You can also read our previous updates here.

Over 100 international law scholars say the US-Israeli war may violate the UN Charter, while Doomsday Clock chief calls the conflict “idiotic”

More than 100 US-based international law experts have warned that American strikes on Iran may amount to war crimes, citing violations of the UN Charter, attacks on civilian infrastructure, and alarming rhetoric from senior officials.

In an open letter published on Thursday by the Just Security policy journal, scholars from Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and other institutions stated that the unprovoked US-Israeli campaign against Iran which began in late February is “a clear violation of the United Nations Charter.”

They also stated that the conduct of US forces and statements by officials “raise serious concerns about violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law, including potential war crimes.”

The experts specifically highlighted President Donald Trump’s remarks last month that the US may conduct strikes on Iran “just for fun.” They also cited War Secretary Pete Hegseth’s March 2 statement that the US does not fight with “stupid rules of engagement,” and his declaration of “no quarter, no mercy for our enemies” – a phrase that, under international law, can constitute a war crime.

The letter expressed particular concern over the February 28 strike on the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school in Minab, which killed at least 175 people, mostly children. The Pentagon has reportedly determined that US forces carried out the strike based on outdated intelligence but has yet to apologize.

The same day, a US missile struck a school and sports hall in the city of Lamerd, killing at least 21 people. The New York Times reported that the weapon used was the previously untested Precision Strike Missile, which disperses small tungsten pellets.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said over 600 schools and educational facilities have been targeted, calling the Minab massacre part of “a systematic and brutal pattern of illegal warfare.” Iran has accused the US and Israel of committing genocide.

Separately, John Mecklin, editor-in-chief of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which sets the Doomsday Clock, described the war as “absolutely idiotic,” warning that “accidents, miscalculations, crazy stuff” happen in wars and a nuclear accident “can’t be ruled out” until the fighting stops.

Both the legal experts and Mecklin called for a return to diplomacy while noting that Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal has made a negotiated settlement extremely difficult.

Potential US presidential candidate Rahm Emanuel has accused the party of trading middle class credibility for woke activism

Barack Obama’s former chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, has torn into his own party for embracing race and gender activism over “middle class values.” Can the Democrats row back the worst excesses of the woke era? And could Emanuel lead the party in 2028?

”We lost the plot,” Emanuel said on ‘The Fifth Column’ podcast this week. “We as Democrats nationally, from ‘Latinx,’ to defunding the police, to ‘police organizations are all racist,’ to bringing a set of cultural wars to our schools. We are on the losing side of those cultural wars. Full stop.”

“Nobody seems to be calling the whistle on this,” he continued. “You are worried about bathroom access and locker room access, why don’t you focus on classroom excellence?”

“We went from acceptance to advocacy. I remember fighting for Title IX,” he said, referring to the anti-discrimination law that mandated equal athletic opportunities in schools and colleges for women. “Why would you undercut the premise of Title IX with the ability of trans men [to play] in women’s sports?”

Rahm Emanuel on how and why the Democrats have "lost the plot."

Our members-only episode with Rahm Emanuel is available now on Substack. pic.twitter.com/5HALlSCBEj

— The Fifth Column 🖐 (@wethefifth) March 31, 2026

Emanuel is – or was – regarded as a standard-bearer within the Democratic Party. After three terms representing Illinois in the US Congress, he served as President Barack Obama’s chief of staff from 2009 to 2019, mayor of Chicago from 2011 to 2019, and US ambassador to Japan from 2022 to 2025.

He is the latest in a series of powerful Democratic figures to distance themselves from the worst excesses of the ‘woke’ era. Former Clinton strategist James Carville has called on fellow Democrats to abandon “performative woke politics” and embrace a “platform of pure economic rage.” Senator John Fetterman has declared that he is “not woke” and urged his party to toughen up on crime; liberal think tanks have pleaded with Democrats to stop using words that put “a wall between us and everyday people” – including ‘heteronormative’, ‘microaggression’, and ‘LGBTQIA+’.

Peak woke

The Democratic Party’s woke turn reached its apex in 2024. That year, President Joe Biden proclaimed Easter Sunday ‘Transgender Day of Visibility’, Planned Parenthood offered free abortions and vasectomies from a van parked outside the the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and Kamala Harris defended her record of promising taxpayer-funded sex changes to prisoners and illegal immigrants.

🚨NEW AD ALERT🚨

Crazy liberal Kamala Harris is for They/Them not for YOU pic.twitter.com/vYN5mi1R1g

— MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) October 5, 2024

Current President and then-candidate Donald Trump’s campaign capitalized on this, running ads featuring Harris advocating for late-term abortion and transgender athletes in women’s sports. In one TV spot, images of cross-dressing White House officials Richard ‘Rachel’ Levine and Sam Britton flashed across the screen, as a voiceover told voters: “Kamala’s for they/them. President Trump is for you.”

Voters agreed, handing Trump all seven swing states and the first popular vote victory for a Republican candidate since 2004. Crucial to this victory were the votes of young white males, a demographic ignored and condescended to by Harris’ party.

Will the Democrats return to the center?

Emanuel believes that in order to win again, Democrats have to return to the cultural center. “Every one of our most successful electoral presidents anchored themselves in what I call ‘middle class values,’” he told ‘The Fifth Column’. “Values that are universally, at least in this country, ascribed to.”

His plea may be somewhat self-serving. According to a host of Democrat insiders interviewed by The Atlantic and Politico, Emanuel is “publicly and privately gearing up for a presidential campaign,” and “sees a weak field” of competitors. 

Chief among these competitors is California Governor Gavin Newsom. While Newsom has repudiated some of the party’s woke dogmas – referring to the victory of a transgender triple-jumper in a high school championship last year as “deeply unfair” – he has also defended his decision to offer ‘sanctuary’ to illegal immigrants in California, created a government department to explore paying reparations to descendants of slavery, and permitted children to travel to California to receive sex change operations that would be illegal in their home states.

Newsom has not announced his candidacy yet, but is currently the second-favorite to take the nomination, behind Harris. Should Emanuel enter the race, however, it is unclear whether the Democratic base actually wants a more centrist candidate.

Emanuel has been described as a “vocal Zionist,” at a time when Democrats in the US sympathize with the Palestinians over the Israelis by a 65% to 17% margin. He is also an economic liberal, at a time when self-professed ‘democratic socialist’ Zohran Mamdani handily defeated centrist Andrew Cuomo in last year’s New York mayoral election. Emanuel cut funding to Chicago schools to build a new police academy, while Mamdani accused the NYPD of racism and proposed defunding the department.

Whatever form the Democratic Party takes in the runup to 2028, it will have to reckon with the fact that despite Donald Trump’s sinking approval rating, the president is still more popular than his opponents. According to polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics, Trump’s net approval rating is currently sitting at -15.5 points, while Democrats’ net favorability rating is a dismal -20.4 points.

To close this gap, the party will have to tackle the legacy of an ideology it embraced and operationalized, through which it scapegoated and canceled skeptics, ruined careers and lives, and distracted Americans from an enormous decline in their material and existential circumstances. Emmanuel’s confession that they “lost the plot,” while reeking of political opportunism, may have highlighted an issue that could split his party’s base into cliques and clans, as the ideology he and his peers in the White House espoused did to a generation.

The move came after Pretoria’s Foreign Ministry said it had held substantive discussions with its Iranian counterpart over the instability in the Middle East

Iran has confirmed that South African vessels will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, as Pretoria scrambles to shield its energy security from the fallout of escalating tensions in the Gulf.

That was the message from the Iranian Embassy in South Africa as tensions in the Middle East continue to grip one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints. The narrow waterway, where a significant share of global oil supply passes, has become a major point in the escalating standoff involving Iran, the United States and Israel.

The Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco) said it is closely monitoring the situation, with Minister Ronald Lamola emphasising the country’s diplomatic efforts.

”Following extensive consultations with several of my counterparts in Gulf nations currently impacted by the prevailing instability in the Middle East, I held a substantive discussion with the Iranian Foreign Minister, His Excellency Abbas Araghchi,” Lamola said.

He added: “I expressed our profound concern regarding the escalating loss of civilian life and the worsening humanitarian situation in the region.”

Lamola also reaffirmed South Africa’s stance on peaceful resolution. “We reaffirmed our call for an immediate de-escalation of hostilities.

”South Africa remains steadfast in its position that the only viable path forward is through diplomatic engagement and a commitment to a peaceful, just, and lasting resolution to the conflict, in accordance with international law.”

The Strait of Hormuz lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman.
South African vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

— Iran Embassy SA (@IraninSA) April 2, 2026

On the opening of the waterway for the country, political analyst Siya Ntombela said he does not anticipate backlash. He told IOL that South Africa’s ties with Iran have strategic benefits.

”We took Israel to the International Court of Justice alleging it is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. This claim resonates with Iran thus we are given a free pass,” he said.

He added that South Africa cannot afford not to have access to oil given its poor economy and high unemployment rate. “What we need to do is to exploit the opportunity and top up our oil reserves because the global dynamics may change drastically.”

However, another political analyst, Andre Duvenhage said that he does not believe that South Africa has a lot of big ships or tankers.

”This is an indication of the very strong alignment between South African and Iran and a point of conflict with both the United States of America and Israel.

”This is making South Africa an economic and political target. The reality is that we don’t get the majority of our oil from the Middle East but from places like Angola and Nigeria.”

First published by IOL

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty reviewed trade growth, security coordination and regional crises

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty reaffirmed the strategic partnership between the countries during a meeting in Moscow on Friday. 

The meeting followed talks held a day earlier between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Abdelatty, during which the Russian leader invited Egypt to take part in the third Russia–Africa Summit scheduled for this autumn.  

Abdelatty confirmed Lavrov’s words about the “strategic nature of bilateral relations, …including economic relations, relations in the sphere of security, military, political, energy and others.” 

The sides discussed trade and economic cooperation, including plans to establish a logistics hub in Egypt for Russian petroleum products and grain, which is expected to support the needs of Arab states and the African continent.

“We [Egypt] hope this project will become a platform for production and export,” Abdelatty said. Cairo views Moscow as “a primary ally and Egypt’s leading partner” in grain imports, the country’s minister said. 

Lavrov also noted the increase in trade turnover between the countries, stating that by the end of last year, “bilateral trade exceeded $10 billion, which is an increase of nearly 12%.” 

Addressing ongoing regional crises, the parties signaled that their positions largely coincide, particularly on the situation in the Middle East, where both sides advocate de-escalation and political solutions. 

“Russia and Egypt have aligned strategic approaches to the crisis in the Middle East,” Lavrov said. 

The ministers addressed other conflicts, noting that fighting in Sudan has been ongoing for three years, while Libya has faced prolonged instability since 2011, and stressing the need for coordinated international efforts and political settlements. 

The talks also covered preparations for upcoming international formats, including plans to hold the Russia–Arab Cooperation Forum and the Russia–Africa Summit.

With 90% of imported cooking gas running through the Iran‑controlled chokepoint and only 15 days of storage, New Delhi is testing Baltic and Pacific routes

The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shortages that India faces as a result of the Middle East conflict have highlighted the need to strengthen the resilience of the nation’s most politically sensitive fuel.

Data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) shows that LPG consumption reached 31.32 million tonnes in 2024-25, while domestic production was 12.79 million tonnes. This means that close to 60% of demand was met by imports, most of which transit through the conflict‑hit Strait of Hormuz.

When flows through this corridor were disrupted, India’s LPG supply chain came under immediate strain. Arrivals fell sharply, March imports dropped to 1.19 million tonnes, a 46% decline, triggering spillovers into the domestic economy.

The government moved swiftly to prioritize household consumption while tightening supplies to industry, even as limited storage, barely 2-3 weeks of demand, narrowed the response window. New Delhi simultaneously invoked emergency measures to maximize refinery LPG output, with domestic production rising by roughly 40% in early March and scrambled for cargoes from alternative suppliers such as the US and Norway.

In this reshuffle, Russia, already India’s largest crude supplier, has emerged as a marginal LPG source. The key constraints, however, are limited volumes and complex logistics.

India’s structural LPG dependence

India’s LPG imports have risen steadily, from 14.81 million tonnes in 2019-20 to 20.67 million tonnes in 2024-25 following the expansion of clean‑cooking access and rising consumption. Over the same period, domestic production has remained broadly flat at around 12-13 million tonnes, even as consumption increased from 26.33 million tonnes to 31.32 million tonnes. As a result, imports have absorbed most of the incremental demand, pushing their share to around two‑thirds of total consumption.

Efforts to diversify supply were already underway before the crisis, most notably through India’s long‑term LPG supply agreement with the US, securing around 2-2.2 million tonnes annually from 2026. However, the current disruption shows that diversification remains partial and depends on freight costs and vessel availability.  

The crisis has also exposed a weaker link in India’s LPG chain of limited storage capacity. PPAC’s latest LPG Profile Report puts total LPG tankage at about 1.2 million tonnes, equivalent to roughly 15 days of national demand. Bottling plants on average hold only around six days of stock, so even short‑lived disruptions leave policymakers with little room for maneuver and quickly amplify external shocks.

Russian routes: Ust‑Luga, Vladivostok, and the NSR

Reports suggest that India increasingly secures LPG cargoes from Russia and Japan as well as the US. Given that India consumes 2.6 million tonnes of LPG a month, around 80,000-90,000 tonnes a day, even several alternative cargoes, typically 40,000-60,000 tonnes each, cover only a few days of national demand. Initial Russian and Japanese supplies are therefore strategic hedges, not game‑changers.

But diversifying suppliers is not the same as diversifying routes. That is why Russia and longer‑range corridors such as the Northern Sea Route and the proposed Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor have entered the policy debate as they offer route diversity when the Middle East is on fire.

On Russia’s side, the main LPG export gateway is the Baltic port of Ust‑Luga, where the Sibur terminal handles liquefied gas. In 2024-25, industry reports indicated that LPG exports from Ust‑Luga roughly doubled year‑on‑year over January-May 2025 as European buyers retreated and exporters pivoted to Asia, and shipping intelligence noted at least two India‑bound cargoes totaling about 40,000 tonnes once flows resumed.

Indian strategists see two broad corridors for these volumes. A western route runs from the Baltic or Black Sea through the Mediterranean, Suez Canal and Red Sea into the Arabian Sea, bypassing Hormuz but adding exposure at Suez and Bab el‑Mandeb; deliveries to Kochi, Mangaluru, or Jamnagar would take around 40 days or more.

An eastern route departs from Russia’s Far East around Vladivostok, passes through the Sea of Japan, the East and South China seas, and the Strait of Malacca, and then across the Bay of Bengal to India’s east coast, reaching Haldia, Paradip, or Ennore in 12-24 days. This corridor concentrates risk in Malacca, crowded with container traffic and lying under Chinese naval shadow, but it fits India’s broader Indo‑Pacific calculus if eventually anchored in a formal Chennai-Vladivostok link.

For now, talk of the Northern Sea Route as an energy lifeline is more ambitious than a near‑term solution. Harsh ice conditions, the small fleet of ice‑class tankers and LNG carriers certified for Arctic operations, high insurance premiums, and sanctions on key Russian Arctic oil and gas projects limit the commercial viability of NSR‑based LPG trades in the near term.

Even with record traffic of about 38 million tonnes in 2024, total NSR cargo is still a fraction of the hundreds of millions of tonnes moving through the Suez Canal each year, which is why most analysts see it as a niche supplement rather than a realistic replacement for existing routes.

Yet both capitals are clearly intent on keeping the Vladivostok-Chennai Eastern Maritime Corridor on the table as an option, with Indian ministers describing it as operational and highlighting its early role in carrying crude and other bulk cargoes between Russia’s Far East and India’s east coast.

Security premium, signaling and political calculus

Russia’s role as a swing supplier is about redrawing risk, not replacing the Gulf. India imported around 20.67 million tonnes of LPG in 2024-25, implying an import requirement of 1.7-1.9 million tonnes per month and leaving overseas supplies to meet the bulk of domestic demand. Even under optimistic assumptions, Russia’s incremental export capacity can cover only a small share of this requirement, broadly comparable to the eventual scale of India’s long‑term LPG arrangement with the United States, so alternative suppliers can buffer shocks but not substitute the Gulf.

The value of Russian LPG therefore lies in geography and signaling rather than volume. Cargoes arriving via Ust‑Luga through Suez, or via Vladivostok and Malacca, are by definition non‑Hormuz flows, and even incremental non‑Gulf volumes shift India’s risk calculus when set against the growing share of crude now imported on routes that bypass Hormuz, as highlighted in recent shipping data and official statements on diversification. The question is whether New Delhi will pay a modest route premium for this security, just as it accepts extra miles to tap discounted Russian crude or continue to fall back on crisis‑time improvisation.

There is also a domestic political dimension. LPG is the flagship symbol of the government’s clean‑cooking drive, and a prolonged shortage would be far more electorally damaging than a technical disruption in refinery crude runs. This is why official communications during the crisis have stressed refinery output ramp‑ups and diversified sourcing, amplified by images of VLGCs discharging LPG at Indian ports, alongside repeated assurances that people’s fuel needs will be met.

For policymakers, the strategic choice is how much to invest in tanks at home versus miles at sea, whether to expand LPG storage or pay a premium for Russian and other non‑Hormuz cargoes, since Russia cannot replace the Gulf but, via routes from Ust‑Luga through Suez and from Vladivostok through Malacca, does give New Delhi a way to recast supply risk beyond West Asia.

For Moscow, stepping in as a dependable swing supplier, even at modest volumes, cements its image in India as a long‑term energy partner rather than a crisis‑time outlier.

Over half of surveyed representatives of top judicial authorities are increasingly using AI to prepare for hearings and draft rulings

Over half of US federal judges (60%) are using at least one AI tool in their judicial work, a recent Northwestern University study suggests. The research is based on responses from 112 federal judges, drawn from a random sample of 502 federal bankruptcy, magistrate, district court, and appellate court officials.

The use of AI in courtrooms has recently drawn attention for fabricated citations and other errors that have undermined confidence in some filings. The survey published earlier this week shows that these tools are now being adopted not just by lawyers, but also by federal judges.

The survey found that 60% of judges use AI at least occasionally for tasks such as reviewing documents, conducting legal research, and drafting or editing documents. Around 22% use it daily or weekly. Legal research was the most common (30%), followed by reviewing documents (16%).

Around one in three judges said they permit or encourage AI in their chambers, while 20% formally prohibit it. More than 45% reported that they have not received AI training from the court administration.

While judges acknowledge the risks of AI, experts warn that its unreliability could undermine judicial authority.

“Judges make decisions that are very important to people and resolve significant disputes,” Eric Posner, a law professor at the University of Chicago, said. “They cannot gamble with a technology that is not fully understood and is known to hallucinate.”

Proponents argue that AI could improve efficiency and help manage heavy caseloads. “We are cautious but early results are very positive,” Christopher Patterson, a Florida chief judge, said. “We are assessing accuracy, suitability, and time savings.”

US courts have recently warned and sanctioned attorneys over AI-generated content. In March, New York judges urged verification of AI citations after several briefs included fabricated cases. Bloomberg reported in December that AI-hallucinated citations are a growing problem, and the previous month, several lawyers were fined for filings containing hundreds of false AI-generated citations.

Concerns are rising worldwide over the impact of AI on work, the labor market, and people’s mental and physical health. AI often produces false or misleading information, and experts warn that relying on it for life-and-death decisions is especially dangerous, raising questions about safety, accountability, and societal effects.

The leadership in Tehran was willing to negotiate and was not seeking a nuclear weapon, according to the analyst

Iran is a victim of illegal aggression by the US and Israel, prominent American economist Jeffrey Sachs has told RT’s Sanchez Effect, rejecting Washington’s claims that Tehran was seeking a nuclear weapon.

Speaking with host Rick Sanchez on Thursday, Sachs lambasted US President Donald Trump’s speech the day before, in which the American leader justified Operation Epic Fury as a necessary response to Iran’s alleged nuclear ambitions.

”Iran is not a guilty party in this, it’s the victim of aggression,” Sachs said, calling the operation devastating, illegal, and ineffective.

He pointed to repeated statements by Iran’s religious leadership opposing nuclear weapons.

”The supreme leader famously, unless someone is living in a cave for the past 20 years, said ‘No’ to the weapons,” he said, referring to a religious ruling from the early 2000s.

”Iran had wanted to negotiate, not for the last week, not for the last month, but for the last 15 years,” Sachs added, noting that Tehran opened its nuclear program to UN inspections under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement between Iran and major world powers which placed strict limits on Tehran’s nuclear program.

However, in 2018, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA. Washington and Tehran restarted negotiations last year, although Trump later claimed Tehran had “rejected every opportunity” to reach a deal.

According to Sachs, the US president “has ripped up the agreement which absolutely prevented Iran from having a nuclear weapon that they didn’t even want.”

Watch the full video below:

The US is unable to restore order in the Strait of Hormuz, casting doubt on its role as a global policeman, the conservative host has said

The Iran war has ushered in the “end of American Empire”, conservative host Tucker Carlson has argued, suggesting that US President Donald Trump’s call for allies to secure the Strait of Hormuz proved that Washington could no longer function as the world’s policeman.

Speaking on his podcast on Thursday, Carlson commented on Trump’s remarks in which the president threatened to bomb Iran into the “stone age” without providing an exact timeline for a ceasefire while urging other countries to “take the lead” in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz – a strategic chokepoint which accounts for around 20% of global oil trade.

Washington’s NATO allies, however, have been reluctant to step in following US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Carlson argued that “the nation that forces the peace is the nation in charge,” adding that “the country that forces order on the Persian Gulf, that opens the Strait of Hormuz, is the nation that runs the world by definition.”

For decades since WWII, the nation capable of maintaining order was assumed to be the US, but the Hormuz crisis has shown it’s no longer the case, the journalist continued. “We can’t open the Straits of Hormuz,” Carlson said. “The President of the United States said that last night – someone else do it. So we’re done.”

He argued that even if the US were to completely destroy Iran as a cohesive nation, the remaining warlords would have no difficulties in disrupting the maritime route by laying mines, using cheap drones, or even just by threatening to do so, meaning that the hostilities would have to end in a diplomatic settlement with Tehran sooner or later.

”What’s happening in Iran is the end of American empire as we understand it. And that’s sad. Empire’s dying. But it’s not the end of the United States,” he added.

Carlson acknowledged that the transition would bring “a lot of suffering and sadness,” but noted that it also carried the promise of a US that could turn its attention to the Western hemisphere, also rich in resources and vital for America’s stability, without the need to occupy “countries you’ve never been to.”

Carlson, generally supportive of Trump, has been a vocal critic of US-Israeli strikes on Iran, prompting the US president to claim that the journalist “has lost his way” and is not really part of the MAGA movement.

An association of lawyers condemned the transfer as a scheme to forcibly remove migrants and “dump them” in Uganda

A group of 12 people deported from the US under a controversial third-country arrangement has arrived in Uganda, an association of lawyers in the East African nation has said, denouncing the transfer as unlawful and dehumanizing.

The Uganda Law Society said the deportees were flown in on a private charter aircraft, scheduled to land at Entebbe International Airport, about 40 km southwest of Kampala, on Thursday.

The lawyers described the move as “an advanced plot to forcibly remove... and effectively dump” migrants in Uganda “through an undignified, harrowing and dehumanizing process that has reduced them into little more than chattel.”

The transfer is the first under an agreement Kampala signed with Washington last August to accept some third-country nationals deported from the US. The government said it would not take people with criminal records or unaccompanied minors and would give preference to people of African origin.

The US Embassy in Kampala has reportedly confirmed the removals, but did not disclose the deportees’ identities or nationalities. Yasmeen Hibrawi, a public affairs counsellor at the embassy said all deportations “are in full cooperation with the government of Uganda,” Reuters reported.

“We do not, however, discuss the details of our private diplomatic communications and for privacy reasons, we cannot discuss the particulars to their cases,” Hibrawi stated.

However, the Uganda Law Society claims that “none of the mandated institutions,” including the Directorate of Citizenship and Immigration Control, parliament, and the Foreign Ministry, has been involved in the transfer.

The administration of US President Donald Trump has pursued third-country resettlement agreements to deport asylum seekers as part of a wider crackdown on illegal immigration.

Other African countries that have accepted or agreed to host deportees include Eswatini, Ghana, Rwanda, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and South Sudan. Eswatini has confirmed receiving $5.1 million from Washington under the deal and has taken in at least 19 people since last July.

It remains unclear whether Uganda is being paid to accept deportees.

The policy has drawn widespread criticism, including from the African Union’s human rights body, over its secrecy and the treatment of those transferred. The Uganda Law Society said it has approached courts, seeking orders to halt what it called a “patent international illegality.”

The bloc’s energy commissioner ruled out lifting restrictions on Russian energy while warning of possible future fuel rationing

The EU will not reverse its ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, even as Brussels prepares for a “long-lasting” energy shock that could force member states to ration fuel, Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has said. 

In an interview with the Financial Times, Jorgensen warned that “this will be a long crisis” and “energy prices will be higher for a very long time” due to the supply disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran and the near‑total closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure. 

Jorgensen acknowledged the situation is now more serious than at the start of the crisis, and while the EU is “not yet in a supply security crisis,” Brussels is “preparing for the worst‑case scenarios,” including rationing of critical products such as jet fuel and diesel, and could release more oil from strategic reserves “if the situation becomes more critical.”  

However, no matter how bad things get, Jorgensen insisted there would be no change to EU legislation aimed at ending Russian LNG by the end of 2026, instead preferring the much more expensive alternatives from the US “and other partners.” The EU has also ruled to outlaw Russian pipeline gas imports by Autumn 2027. 

Brussels’ insistence on rejecting cheap Russian energy has drawn sharp criticism from some EU leaders. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has warned that “Europe is heading toward one of the most severe economic crises in its history,” stressing that “the only way out is to lift the sanctions imposed on Russian energy. Immediately.” Budapest has repeatedly accused Brussels of “shooting itself in the foot” with its sanctions on Russian energy.  

Moscow has echoed that message. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev predicted that “Europe and Britain will beg for Russian energy” as the crisis deepens, warning that oil could spike to $150‑200 a barrel.  

The conflict has disrupted global supply chains and thrown energy markets into turmoil. As of Thursday, the price of crude has risen to around $111 per barrel, while the price of gas in the EU has spiked to around €50 ($58) per MWh, a 56% increase from February.

Brussels’ ambitions mean Moscow should oppose the bloc’s expansion, the Russian Security Council deputy chair has warned

The EU’s planned military buildup while division is rocking NATO could make it a more serious threat to Russia than the US-led bloc, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, has warned.

Divisions within NATO are evident, Medvedev said in a social media post on Friday, even if US President Donald Trump’s threats to withdraw from the bloc over a lack of European support for his war on Iran are unlikely to materialize. The row, he claimed, gives impetus to EU leaders to move faster toward establishing an independent “fully-fledged military component,” signaling a major shift in the balance of power.

“The EU is no longer just an economic union. It can transform, and rather quickly, into a full-blown military alliance, one overtly hostile to Russia, and in some ways worse than NATO,” Medvedev warned. He argued that Moscow should actively oppose EU expansion rather than remain passive.

Russia remains ‘calm’ about EU

For years, Moscow largely viewed the EU as an economic project with limited military relevance and as a rival to its Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – unlike NATO, whose expansion was seen as a direct threat.

The 2014 coup in Kiev was triggered by pressure from Brussels on Ukraine to sign an association agreement that was incompatible with its existing free trade arrangement with Russia. Even after the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russian officials maintained that Ukraine’s potential EU membership was not a major concern.

Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated the same position regarding Armenia during talks with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. He said Moscow is “absolutely calm” about the Caucasian nation’s cooperation with the EU, but warned that Yerevan would ultimately need to choose between integration with the bloc and participation in the EAEU.

Ukraine and Moldova have framed their EU aspirations as a civilizational choice made in opposition to Russia. Moscow argues that the post-Soviet nations are harming their peoples’ interests and accuses Brussels of forcing countries into a binary alignment.

Georgia was once considered a Western bulwark in Russia’s backyard, but adopted a more neutral stance after a new government came to power in early 2012. As tensions between the West and Russia escalated in recent years, Brussels accused Tbilisi of an authoritarian slide and effectively froze the country’s candidacy.

EU stepping up military preparations

Last year, the EU announced plans to allocate some €800 billion ($923 billion) by 2030 for weapons and security capabilities, claiming the spending is necessary to prepare for a possible war with Russia. The initiative is facing challenges due to economic pressures and internal disagreements over the distribution of defense contracts among member states.

Moscow has repeatedly denied any intention to attack NATO or EU countries, arguing that such claims are used to justify massive investments in arms amid staggering economic growth. The shift in EU policy has reinforced views within Russia that it should be regarded as a strategic threat, particularly given strong anti-Russian sentiment among EU institutions and several member governments.