The centuries-old Easter rite at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre will go ahead, the Orthodox clergy say
The closure of Christianity’s holiest shrine in Jerusalem to pilgrims amid the escalating Middle East war is not expected to halt the traditional Holy Fire ceremony that marks the start of Orthodox Easter, a senior Russian cleric has said.
The Church of the Holy Sepulchre, revered by believers as the site of Jesus Christ’s crucifixion and resurrection, has been shut to the public and for open services due to the exchange of airstrikes between Israel and Iran. With Orthodox Easter falling on April 12 this year, the restrictions have raised concerns that centuries-old ceremonies could be canceled for the first time in modern history.
Speaking to RT on Friday, Archpriest Igor Vyzhanov cited information from the Moscow Patriarchate’s office in the Holy Land that liturgical life inside the church has been going despite the closure.
”The most important thing … is that services in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre are continuing,” he said. “The clergy of the Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem are conducting services in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre behind closed doors, meaning that prayer is taking place.”
The measures appear to affect only pilgrims and tourists, not the rite itself, Vyzhanov said. “Perhaps the patriarch of Jerusalem will, as he does every year, enter the church, and this miracle will occur.”
The Holy Fire ceremony, usually held on Holy Saturday on the eve of Orthodox Easter, sees the Patriarch of Jerusalem enter the small chapel over the traditional tomb of Christ and emerge with candles lit by a flame that believers regard as miraculous. The fire is then distributed to worshipers and is traditionally flown by special flights to Greece, Russia and other majority‑Orthodox countries – to launch Easter services there.
The Russian Orthodox Church has expressed hope that the closure will not disrupt the transfer of the Holy Fire, calling the continuation of prayer in the Sepulchre “the key thing” even in wartime conditions.
Kiev has the means to track down potential draftees who had gone into hiding, a Ukrainian lawmaker believes
Kiev has the means to round up people evading the military draft, tracking them through banking transactions and use of digital services, Ukrainian lawmaker Solomia Bobrovskaya has suggested.
According to estimates recently voiced by newly appointed Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov, around two million potential recruits were on a wanted list for draft evasion, while some 200,000 active-duty troops had gone AWOL. The Ukrainian draft system has long needed an overhaul, Borovskaya told the Telegraf outlet in an interview on Thursday, arguing that forced mobilization efforts and punitive measures had effectively stopped working.
“Unfortunately, the parliament passed a law taking a harsher approach and increasing criminalization for deserters. We raised prison terms from 8 to 10 years, effectively sentencing them to longer terms than murderers or terrorists. My point is the ‘stick’ policy alone is not working,” Bobrovskaya stated.
The authorities should take a more flexible approach to deserters, the lawmaker suggested, examining the reasons behind soldiers going AWOL, casualties sustained by their units, and so on. At the same time, the MP suggested that Kiev actually has the means to track those citizens who had gone into hiding to escape the draft. “I believe it’s possible. Everyone uses information, electronic, and financial services and transactions,” Bobrovskaya stated.
The compulsory military drive, enforced by Kiev to compensate for combat losses, has grown increasingly chaotic and violent over the years. The process has become colloquially known as ‘busification,’ a term describing the process of violently shoving recruits into minibuses commonly used by enlistment officials.
Numerous videos circulating online show draft officers brawling with potential recruits and onlookers in the streets, breaking into vehicles and homes, and on some occasions, even resorting to the use of military-grade weapons in their standoffs with civilians.
According to estimates voiced by Ukrainian lawmaker Vadim Ivchenko, the current recruiting scheme “gives approximately 8-10%” of the personnel needed by the army despite all the violence. Moreover, fewer than one in ten Ukrainians are currently joining the military voluntarily, Ivchenko claimed, arguing that it was impossible to abandon forced mobilization practices.
Brussels is deploying all of its influence and censorship machinery ahead of the Hungarian election
Three weeks out from the most consequential European election of the year, the EU has aimed every weapon in its arsenal at Hungary, as Brussels prepares for its best shot yet at taking out Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Orban’s animosity toward the EU establishment runs deep. For more than a decade, the Hungarian prime minister has often been the bloc’s sole dissident: railing against its open-door migration policies, embrace of LGBT ideology, and “suicidal” plan to welcome Ukraine into the union. Orban has secured carve-outs from the EU’s anti-Russian sanctions that enabled Hungary to continue purchasing Russian oil, and is currently vetoing a €90 billion loan package for Kiev.
The EU has responded by withholding funds equal to 3.5% of Hungary’s GDP over his banning of LGBT propaganda and refusal to accept non-European migrants. With the future of its Ukraine project now on the line, Brussels has pinned its hopes on Peter Magyar and his Tisza party, which promises to overturn Orban’s domestic reforms and Budapest’s opposition to the EU’s designs in Ukraine and beyond.
After the European Council failed to find a workaround to Orban’s veto at a March 19 meeting, the EU’s chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, hinted that work was underway on a “Plan B.” Based on the strategy playing out in Budapest, ‘Plan B’ clearly involves a full-scale campaign of censorship and subversion to influence Hungary’s upcoming elections.
Rapid Response
On March 16, European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier quietly announced that the EU had activated its Rapid Response System (RRS) to “combat potential Russian online disinformation campaigns” in the runup to the Hungarian election. The mechanism will be active until one week after the vote, Regnier said.
While most Europeans have never heard of this system, the RRS has been a key tool in the commission’s censorship arsenal for years. It empowers EU-approved “fact-checkers” to flag online content as “disinformation” and request its removal from platforms – Regnier cited TikTok and Meta as two examples.
Theoretically, platforms such as Meta and TikTok participate in the system voluntarily. All major social media companies have to sign up to the EU’s ‘Code of Practice on Disinformation’. However, a trove of documents published by the House Judiciary Committee in Washington this year revealed that these companies were threatened – often explicitly – with punishment under the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA) if they refused to tow the EU line.
The premise resembles a Mafia-style protection racket, with the deputy chief of the commission’s communications directorate telling platforms in 2024 that refusal to sign the codes of conduct “could be taken into account… when determining whether the provider is complying with the obligations laid down by the DSA.”
The DSA is now in force, giving Brussels’ fact-checkers the final say over what constitutes “disinformation” ahead of the election.
Peter Magyar’s allies in Meta
The argument that these fact-checkers favor Magyar is well founded. Over four European elections in which the Rapid Response System was activated, the Judiciary Committee found that fact-checkers “almost exclusively targeted” right-wing and populist candidates and organizations. “Moreover, the requirement that these fact-checkers be approved by the European Commission creates a clear structural incentive for the participants to censor Euroskeptic opinion and content,” the committee noted.
Hungarian MEP Dora David, a former Meta employee and member of Magyar’s Tisza party, boasted last year that “we’ve seen companies change their behavior” based on the threat of DSA enforcement, citing Meta’s removal of pro-Orban content as an example.
The fact-checkers can count on sympathetic staff within the social media companies. After several members of Orban’s Fidesz party claimed that Meta has already started restricting the reach of their Facebook posts, commentators Joey Mannarino and Philip Pilkington identified Oskar Braszczynski as the employee likely responsible. Braszczynski, who works as Meta’s ‘Government and Social Impact Partner for Central and Eastern Europe’, has shared pro-Ukraine, anti-Orban, and pro-LGBT content on his personal social media accounts.
🚨 BREAKING: The guy who is suppressing @PM_ViktorOrban's social media has been leaked. His name is Oskar Braszczyński and he is Meta’s Government & Social Impact Partner for Central and Eastern Europe. Let's have a look at who is putting their thumb on the scale!
”The European Commission is outsourcing the task of content moderation to so-called external civil society actors, all of whom have a progressive orientation,” Fidesz MEP Csaba Domotor said in Brussels on March 18. Regarding Braszczynski’s role in the censorship program, Zoltan Kovacs, a spokesman for Orban’s office, said that having “a highly politicized figure overseeing the region undermines platform neutrality and raises questions about potential interference in Hungary’s election.”
Strong-arming social media platforms
The links between Magyar’s party and Meta may streamline the EU’s censorship efforts, but Brussels is not above strong-arming platforms that refuse to play by its rules. This exact scenario played out in Romania in 2024, when Euroskeptic candidate Calin Georgescu won a shock first-round victory. Romanian and EU authorities immediately declared that Russia had interfered in the election and had run a coordinated campaign on TikTok to help Georgescu win, and the election was annulled.
The day after the annulment, TikTok wrote to the European Commission stating that it had found no evidence of a Russian-linked campaign in support of Georgescu, and that it had in fact been asked to censor pro-Georgescu content by authorities in Bucharest. This content included “disrespectful” posts that “insult the [ruling] PSD party.”
The commission pressed forward and demanded that TikTok make “changes” to its “processes, controls, and systems for the monitoring and detection of any systemic risks.” TikTok complied, and agreed to censor content implying that democratic processes had been undermined in Romania “for the next 60 days to mitigate the risk of harmful narratives.”
Ten days later, and despite its compliance, the European Commission opened formal proceedings against the platform for “a suspected breach of the Digital Services Act (DSA) in relation to TikTok’s obligation to properly assess and mitigate systemic risks linked to election integrity.”
How the EU outsources its smear campaigns
In Hungary and Romania – and in elections in France, Germany, and Moldova – the EU has used the threat of “Russian online disinformation campaigns” to justify its activation of the RRS. When no such threat exists, Brussels can outsource the job of manufacturing it.
Just over a week before Regnier announced the activation of the RSS, journalists at the Polish nonprofit Vsquare claimed to have uncovered evidence that Russian “election fixers” were working in Hungary to swing the election for Orban. In a tale reminiscent of an espionage thriller, the outlet claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin had dispatched “a team of political technologists” from Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, to Budapest, where working under diplomatic cover at the Russian Embassy, they are likely running “vote-buying networks, troll farms, and on-the-ground influence campaigns.”
The report cites “multiple European national security sources,” without disclosing any further details.
Vsquare's article on alleged Russian influence in the Hungarian election, and a list of the outlet's donors from its website
Almost all of Vsquare’s published work – which includes investigations tying Orban’s government to Russian intelligence, as well as hit pieces on populist leaders Robert Fico in Slovakia and Andrej Babis in the Czech Republic – is based on information provided by European intelligence agencies, and interviews with pro-EU politicians and NGOs.
The outlet is funded by grants from the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), an agency of the US State Department that helped foment the 2014 Maidan coup in Ukraine, sponsored meetings of anti-Beijing officials and delegates in Taiwan, and financed a UK-based organization working to drive right-wing American news outlets out of business. It is also financed by USAID, the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and two EU-backed journalism funds.
Whatever the role these agencies played in concocting the story, it served the dual purpose of giving the EU an excuse to switch on its censorship machine, and giving Magyar political ammunition against Orban.
”Agents of Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU, are stationed in Budapest under diplomatic cover to influence the elections,” he told supporters at a rally in the city of Pecs on March 8, before leading the crowd in chants of “Russians, go home!”
Is the EU’s election interference working?
Magyar currently holds a nine-point lead over Orban, according to an aggregate of polls compiled by Politico. However, the polling organizations showing the clearest advantage to Magyar are those affiliated with the opposition or funded by the EU: the 21 Research Center, which is financed by the European Commission, has Tisza leading Fidesz 49% to 37%; the IDEA Institute, which has accepted EU and NED money, shows Magyar’s party leading 48% to 38%; Median, which was founded by a member of the liberal SZDSZ party linked to the opposition HVG newspaper, shows Tisza beating Fidesz by 55% to 35%.
Despite the rosy polling, “many” EU leaders secretly believe that an Orban victory is “likely,” Politico has reported. Hungarian EU Affairs Minister Janos Boka told the outlet that he believes that by sponsoring one-sided polling, Magyar and his allies in Brussels are “building the narrative that if they lose the election, then this is an illegitimate result.”
The fact that the European Commission extended its RSS measures until one week after election day suggests that this might be the case, and that the EU may be preparing to fight a long and bloody battle to win its decade-long war on Orban and bring Hungary back under its control.
War narratives are contrived into seeming reality – until their contradictions unravel them
The battlefield determines who prevails. Yet long before that verdict is rendered, another contest unfolds: over how the war itself is to be understood. From a plurality of competing explanations, a single narrative, or at least a dominant theme, gradually crystallizes and comes to define the conflict.
How wars acquire their story
At the outset of many wars, governments advance a range of justificatory claims, from strategic interests to security threats and humanitarian concerns. Through narrative consolidation, these competing accounts are gradually subsumed into a single dominant story that comes to constitute the war’s moral identity.
The process and its effects were described long ago by the American journalist and political theorist Walter Lippmann. In Public Opinion (1922), he argued that citizens rarely encounter political reality directly. Instead, they apprehend the world through simplified “pictures in their heads,” fashioned by elite discourse and mediated through the press. In this sense, speeches by political leaders do more than announce policy: They begin to shape the narratives through which conflicts are rendered intelligible.
The mechanics of this construction were later laid bare with unusual candor by Edward Bernays, a pioneer of modern public relations. He argued that democratic societies depend upon what he termed the “engineering of consent”: the deliberate formation of public opinion through the orchestration of carefully crafted persuasive narratives.
More recently, critics such as the linguist Noam Chomsky have examined how such narratives circulate through institutional media systems that systematically privilege and amplify elite perspectives while marginalizing alternative voices.
Different thinkers have variously described the mechanism in different ways. Yet the underlying insight remains the same: Wars seldom arise from a single story, but they are often explained – and sustained – by one. Once established, a war’s narrative can become as consequential as the conflict itself.
Stitching the war message together
War narratives typically evolve through a structured sequence. They propagate from inchoate beginnings through a discursive cascade, as successive actors repeat and adapt the message; they crystallize and come to cohere through narrative consolidation, as competing accounts are gradually subsumed into a dominant interpretation; and they acquire force through rhetorical intensification, as the resulting narrative eventually assumes the appearance of not merely plausibility, but inevitability.
As the war message cascades from the decision center to the periphery, successive statements are iteratively refined and brought into mutual alignment around a common narrative core, which is progressively strengthened through accretion.
Where such amplification rests on haphazard piecemeal construction, analytical fallacy, or rhetorical artifice, however, the emerging narrative, though authoritative in appearance, proves inherently vulnerable, with its internal contradictions poised to unravel it.
In an official video message on 28 February 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that the US had commenced “major combat operations in Iran,” presenting the campaign as a preventive exigency in response to “imminent threats” posed by the Iranian “regime”. He justified the action by invoking Iran’s purported nuclear ambitions, its missile program, and its long-standing record of proxy violence.
The commander-in-chief cast the operation as both defensive and stabilizing, directed at eliminating prospective danger and restoring deterrence – despite contested evidence concerning Iran’s actual intent and the immediacy of the purported threat.
Through the layering of rhetorical devices, these contested premises were compressed into a seemingly plausible narrative of necessity, even as its internal tensions remained analytically exposed.
This framing functioned both as a signaling device and conceptual umbrella, under which a wide range of drastic and far-reaching measures were purportedly rendered permissible, including the extrajudicial killing of the Shiʿa world’s foremost religious authority.
As Trump’s adumbrated message diffused, what had been inchoate justificatory strands began to coalesce into dominant narrative leitmotifs. In early March 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed and amplified the nascent discursive pattern, depicting Iran as “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism” and casting the American campaign as an effort to dismantle its military capabilities so as to make the world safer.
Rubio’s underlying formulation combines moral absolutism (presenting moral claims as universally valid and indisputable) and loaded designation (using value-laden labels that prejudge the subject: “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism”) with circular reasoning (treating the label as its own warrant) and teleological framing (justifying action by its intended end: “to make the world safer”). In so doing, Rubio recasts contested claims into a simplified, seemingly self-evident narrative in which eliminating Iran’s capabilities appears as a universal, teleological imperative.
Ten days into the campaign, German Chancellor Merz entered the discursive cascade, assuming a prominent role in the message relay. He construed the Islamic Republic as the center of global terrorism that must be “shut down” and cast US and Israeli operations as a means to that objective. The war, he contended, would cease once Tehran’s clerical leadership desisted, framing the campaign as defensive – after earlier portraying Israel as performing the world’s “dirty work.” These remarks give rise to serious objections on logical, ethical, and rhetorical grounds.
Later that same day, Britain’s defense secretary, John Healey, characterized the Iranian government as “a destructive force which has slaughtered protesters” and urged Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and return to negotiations – even as US and Israeli strikes during the holy month of Ramadan had killed the country’s supreme religious leader and abruptly terminated talks reportedly nearing agreement.
Well into the war’s third week, selectively passing over prior unprovoked Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field – the world’s largest – Healey ascribed sole responsibility for regional destabilization to Tehran. He characterized Iran’s retaliatory actions against Gulf energy sites as a “serious escalation,” eliding the fact that these strikes were precipitated by prior Israeli belligerent action and directed specifically at American assets rather than indiscriminately at neighboring states more broadly.
Healey invoked this framing to justify increased “defensive” support for Gulf states and to attribute rising living costs, especially gas prices, in the U.K. solely to Iran. This came despite the fact that it was the US and Israel that chose to initiate an unprovoked war of aggression against Iran and that Israel then seized the initiative in striking Iranian energy infrastructure, part of a broader pattern of relentless Israeli escalation.
The distinctive confluence of messages is salient. In many cases, a war narrative crystallizes into a singular, sharply defined formulation as it propagates through aligned political discourse. In the Iran case, however, the relay yielded a composite of partially overlapping yet mutually reinforcing messages.
In the course of narrative diffusion, a range of central propositions crystallized. At the highest level of abstraction stood the thesis that the world would be safer without an Iranian nuclear weapon, a claim that begs the question by presupposing an Iranian intention to develop one.
The convergence of reinforcing leitmotifs serves to obscure the absence of any empirically substantiated war justification and admits of subsequent adjustment, while producing an effect akin to that of more precise and disciplined messaging. At the very least, it renders it materially difficult for other states to come to Iran’s defense or to penalize the US and Israel.
Yet as the narrative percolated through the discursive chain, its internal flaws multiplied with each stage of articulation. With the proliferation of analytical fallacies and rhetorical artifices, the central postulates grew increasingly vulnerable to critique. The British defense secretary’s claims offer a case in point.
The proliferation of narrative distortion
Healey’s apologia effectively attributes sole responsibility for the breakdown of diplomacy to Iran, notwithstanding unilateral actions by the opposing side that were themselves solely responsible for bringing talks to a premature end. This narrative inversion exemplifies the twin persuasive devices of causal erasure and reversal of responsibility (a form of the false-cause fallacy).
After excising initiating action from the causal account, victim and perpetrator are transposed, with the coerced party being recast as the initiator and hence constituted as the locus of moral culpability. By eliding prior Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, Healey cast Tehran, the victim, as the sole agent of escalation.
A related instance of causal inversion emerged within the broader logic of ex post facto reasoning, whereby subsequent reactions are invoked to justify the very actions that provoked them.
Commentary recast Iran’s defensive response (the post factum), namely its strikes on US military infrastructure across the region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to enemy vessels, as retroactive justification for the prior US-Israeli attack on Iran. This constitutes a paradigmatic instance of justificatory engineering in war, wherein causal inversion gives rise to a self-fulfilling logic.
The ex post facto rationalization, which folds the adversary’s response back into the original rationale as retroactive evidence, followed upon an ex ante justification, defined as preemptive legitimation prior to the event.
In a classic “proactive defense” argument, the US and Israel had rationalized their attack on Iran as a necessary response to an anticipated, imminent threat arising from Iran’s alleged nuclear and long-range ballistic missile programs. They contended that preventive and ostensibly “defensive” strikes were required to forestall Iran’s development of an atomic bomb and its potential to launch intercontinental missiles against America and its allies. One is reminded that Rome, too, built its empire under the guise of defending its so-called friends (amici).
After the attack, the initiating actor invoked and recast the aggrieved party’s response ex post facto as both confirmation of the purported threat necessitating preemptive action and as retrospective proof of the attack’s necessity, even though the reaction would not have arisen but for the prior belligerent act. The argument thus rests on a reverse-causation fallacy, functioning rhetorically as a form of retrospective legitimation of the initial precipitating intervention.
This retroactive preemptive justification – narrative reasoning that reinterprets subsequent events to validate actions taken prior to their occurrence – was amplified by a speculative, counterfactual assertion to the effect that regional strikes by Iran would have proved far more devastating had the country possessed nuclear weapons. Such speculative thought experiments exploit the epistemic asymmetry that claims about an indeterminate future, being presently unfalsifiable, resist decisive refutation.
Ex ante justification is not inherently fallacious; it becomes so when conjecture substitutes for evidence, with purely hypothetical threats being elevated to the status of established realities, thereby transmuting prudential reasoning into circular or worst-case logic.
To be properly grounded, such reasoning must rest on credible evidence, reasonably foreseeable risk, proportionality of response, and consistency with the information available at the time. Error arises when ex ante claims lack evidentiary grounding, serving merely to confer legitimacy on a predetermined course of action.
In particular, prospective reasoning lapses into fallacy when it relies on the speculative threat fallacy (treating possibility as certainty), slippery-slope reasoning (positing adverse outcomes as an inevitable cascade), worst-case or precautionary overreach (privileging extreme scenarios over more probable ones), or begging the question (circularly presupposing the threat to justify the response). In its most problematic manifestation, the preventive war fallacy, it lowers evidentiary thresholds, invites self-fulfilling escalation, and substitutes anticipation for evidentiary proof.
The imputation of an Iranian nuclear threat lacks such evidentiary grounding. On the contrary, the reverse obtains: Nuclear weapons are explicitly proscribed by a fatwa (a legal ruling) derived from statements by the late Supreme Leader, which declares their production, stockpiling, and use to be haram (forbidden) under Islamic law. The ruling is most clearly articulated as prohibiting nuclear weapons, but Iranian officials have often extended its scope to encompass all weapons of mass destruction.
At bottom, narrative constructions do not merely represent reality; they bind those who advance them. In effect, the fatwa has functioned as an efficacious mechanism of normative and rhetorical entrapment, constraining Iran to act in accordance with its own professed principles and declaratory commitments.
Notably, Western officials, including former US President Barack Obama, repeatedly invoked the Supreme Leader’s fatwa for the purpose of normative anchoring. This technique frames policy as an emanation of an actor’s own avowed precepts, thereby recasting external demands as requirements grounded in the imperative of internal consistency rather than coercion.
Foreign demands were presented as aligned with Iran’s declared prohibition of nuclear weapons rather than as external impositions. The normative injunction thus served as a basis for diplomatic engagement oriented toward negotiated constraint rather than armed conflict.
Moreover, Iran’s declared posture was subject to rigorous verification under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of 2015, with UN inspectors and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN-affiliated nuclear watchdog, repeatedly confirming the absence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. This landmark nuclear accord was subsequently abrogated by US President Trump in contravention of the morally grounded “logic of appropriateness,” which transcends narrow, technical cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, the US intelligence community consistently assessed that Iran is not building an atomic bomb.
In sum, the conjunction of preventive reasoning and retrospective narrative construction reveals how policies are justified ex ante on the basis of anticipated risks, yet subsequently legitimized ex post facto by reference to ensuing events. Neither mode withstands analytical scrutiny, leaving the justificatory edifice structurally vulnerable to challenge.
Making war legible – and seemingly legitimate
Conflicts emerge in complexity; they endure in narrative. Those narratives shape how conflicts are apprehended, how legitimate – and necessary – they appear, and how long they persist.
Wars rarely commence with a single, coherent narrative, yet often come to depend upon one. They originate from tangled histories of rivalry, fear, confusion, tension, and miscalculation, as well as undifferentiated assemblages of partial and competing explanations.
As a rule, a simplified narrative subsequently arises that purports to explain the conflict, assigns blame, and promises resolution, thereby rendering it legible and, in turn, seemingly inevitable to the public.
What begins as amorphous complexity is given intelligible form through cascade, stabilized through consolidation, and elevated into necessity through intensification.
In a casuistic progression, war narratives frequently move from ex ante justification to ex post facto legitimation. What is prospectively advanced as exigency before the war is often retrospectively reinforced by being framed as vindicated by subsequent events, with analytical fallacies and rhetorical artifices introduced in the course of narrative evolution.
History furnishes many instances in which conflicts that began in ambiguity are later recast in a seductively streamlined narrative, transmuting an inchoate, opaque, and perplexing reality into a conveniently reductive moral fable with expedient solutions, readily grasped and endorsed by audiences.
Such simple narratives circulate memetically in the age of viral geopolitics, imposing coherence upon events that were never so orderly while mobilizing broad, often unreflective support in discursive echo chambers. Yet the clarity they afford is often illusory, and, at times, profoundly misleading.
The empirical record attests to how perilous such viral narratives prove to be when analysis yields to storytelling that collapses immense geopolitical complexity into formulaic slogans, and when leaders themselves come to believe their own mantras, mistaking narrative for reality itself.
When a single narrative structure, or a selectively configured set of resonant themes, comes to predominate, it does more than interpret events; it constrains the range of questions citizens feel permitted to ask.
Understanding how such narrative strains are engineered therefore represents not merely a sterile – and bloodless – academic exercise. It is among the few means by which democratic societies can preserve space for doubt at moments when certainty is most politically opportune.
The stakes are considerable. For history repeatedly reminds us that when messages propagate through a discursive cascade, coalesce through narrative consolidation, and intensify through rhetorical amplification into apparent ineluctability, statecraft can give way to storytelling and fiction displace fact.
When narrative hardens into determinacy, the story seldom unfolds and concludes as its authors had promised – if it remains within their control at all.
[Part 4 of a series on viral geopolitics. To be continued. Previous columns in the series:
A video purports to show the torching of a warehouse in the Czech Republic linked to an Israeli defense firm
An anti-Zionist group has claimed responsibility for a fire at a warehouse belonging to a defense firm linked to Israel’s Elbit Systems in the Czech Republic.
The Earthquake Faction, which describes itself as “an internationalist underground network,” posted a video purportedly showing the arson attack on an industrial facility in the Czech town of Pardubice on Friday, along with images of the burned-out building.
It said the site was used to “develop weaponry used by the Zionist entity to massacre people daily in Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, and across West Asia.”
Firefighters extinguished the blaze, no injuries were reported, and police said there was no danger to the public. Officials said the incident is being treated as a suspected terrorist attack.
The facility is operated by LPP Holding, a Czech arms manufacturer producing civilian and military equipment. In 2023, the company announced cooperation with Israel’s Elbit Systems on drone development.
Headquartered in Haifa, the firm is Israel’s largest defense manufacturer, specializing in unmanned systems, precision weapons, and electronic warfare equipment.
The Czech Republic, an EU and NATO member, is a close ally of Israel. Czech officials have supported US and Israeli military actions against Iran and condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks.
No Muslims will be allowed to enter the holy site for one of the main Islamic holidays for the first time since 1967
The Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of the holiest Muslim sites in Jerusalem, has been kept closed by the Israeli authorities, despite Muslims all over the world marking Eid al-Fitr, the final Friday of Ramadan.
The compound was closed over the Iran war, and worshipers have not been allowed to mark the holiday at the site for the first time since 1967.
Scores of people gathered in Jerusalem on Friday to pray, but their attempts to approach the gates of the Old City were met with tear gas from the Israeli security forces stationed at checkpoints, footage from the scene shows.
Israel restricted access to the Old City, including the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, citing security concerns on February 28, when it launched an attack against Iran jointly with the US.
The mosque remains off limits as the conflict enters its fourth week. Earlier in March, a group of eight predominantly Muslim nations – Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Qatar, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – issued a joint statement condemning the closure.
“Security restrictions on access to the Old City of Jerusalem and its places of worship, coupled with discriminatory and arbitrary access restrictions to the other places of worship in the Old City, constitute a flagrant violation of international law,” the group said, stressing that Israel has “no sovereignty over occupied Jerusalem or its Islamic and Christian holy sites.”
With the Easter season rapidly approaching, Israeli-enforced security measures in the Old City put Christian holidays at risk as well. The Church of the Holy Sepulchre, the holiest site in Christianity, remains off-limits, prompting concerns over the Holy Fire ceremony, a major Orthodox event held annually on Holy Saturday. This year, the ceremony falls on April 11, and it is still unclear whether Christian hierarchs and worshipers will be allowed into the church.
The Russian Orthodox Church has spoken out about the restrictions, expressing hope that the church closure will not disrupt the transfer of the Holy Fire. Failure to obtain the Holy Fire is regarded among Orthodox Christians as a bad omen, and potentially a sign that Armageddon is approaching.
The actor died after being hospitalized in Hawaii after suffering a medical emergency, his family has announced
Chuck Norris, the martial arts champion and action film star who became a pop culture phenomenon through his roles in numerous Hollywood classics and a wave of internet memes celebrating his legendary toughness, has died at 86.
The actor passed away Thursday morning following a medical emergency on the Hawaiian island of Kauai, his family confirmed in a statement posted to his Instagram account.
“While we would like to keep the circumstances private, please know that he was surrounded by his family and was at peace,” the statement read. “To the world, he was a martial artist, actor, and a symbol of strength. To us, he was a devoted husband, a loving father and grandfather, an incredible brother, and the heart of our family.”
Born Carlos Ray Norris on March 10, 1940, in Ryan, Oklahoma, the future action star grew up in poverty before enlisting in the US Air Force, where he was stationed in South Korea. There, he began studying martial arts, eventually earning black belts in multiple disciplines and winning six world karate championships. He went on to found two major martial arts systems – American Tang Soo Do and the Chuck Norris System.
His acting career began after he gave private karate lessons to Steve McQueen, who encouraged him to give it a shot in Hollywood. His breakout role came when playing the villain to Bruce Lee’s hero in the 1972 classic ‘Way of the Dragon,’ featuring their legendary Colosseum fight scene which has become one of cinema’s most iconic battles.
The 1980s established Norris as an action icon after he starred in ‘Lone Wolf McQuade,’ ‘Missing in Action,’ ‘Code of Silence,’ ‘Delta Force’. His superstar status was further cemented through his role as Cordell Walker in ‘Walker, Texas Ranger’ which ran for nine seasons in the 1990s.
In the 2000s, Norris experienced a cultural renaissance when ‘Chuck Norris Facts’ became an internet sensation. The memes playfully exaggerated his toughness with lines like “When the boogeyman goes to sleep, he checks his closet for Chuck Norris” or “Superman wears Chuck Norris pyjamas.” Norris embraced the phenomenon, even authoring his own book of ‘facts.’
A devout Christian and social conservative, Norris was also known for his philanthropy and his friendship with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whom he visited in Budapest in 2018 and bonded with over shared values. A statue was erected in Norris’ honor in Budapest in 2024.
The actor was also popular in Russia and visited the country on several occasions, including in 1992 to act as referee at a kickboxing event. In 1995, he became the co-owner of the Firebird nightclub in Moscow and later opened his own establishment in the Russian capital dubbed the “Chuck Norris Enterprise Club Beverly Hills.”
In 1997, he also visited Russia as an honorary guest at a prestigious national Thai boxing and kickboxing tournament and famously had dinner with Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
Norris is survived by his wife Gena, whom he married in 1998, his five children and 13 grandchildren.
Alice Weidel has urged German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to reestablish relations with Russia
Ukraine is one of the most corrupt nations on Earth and Berlin should stop funding its government, Alternative for Germany party co-chair Alice Weidel has told the German parliament.
The exposure of a series of graft scandals involving Vladimir Zelensky’s inner circle has severely damaged his regime, which depends on hundreds of billions of euros from its European backers. As a result, several of Zelensky’s closest confidants have fled the country or been forced to resign.
Weidel asked German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Bundestag on Wednesday if his government wants to “continue financing one of the world’s most corrupt countries with billions to prolong a hopeless war.” The co-leader of the right-wing AfD party also urged Merz to “re-establish the broken lines of communication with Russia” and work toward the resumption of gas imports from the country instead.
Weidel called for sanctions on Moscow to be lifted, pointing out that the US has already begun doing so, referring to a waiver for the sale of Russian oil issued by Washington this month.
Corruption concerns have also reportedly fueled resistance among EU member states, including Germany and France, to Kiev’s early accession to the bloc. Zelensky has insisted that Ukraine should be admitted as soon as 2027.
“Ukraine is just not ready and has rampant corruption,” an unnamed Western European official told Reuters.
Zelensky told the BBC last month that “it is a lie that there is more corruption in Ukraine than in any other European state.”
In November, the Western-backed National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) uncovered a $100 million kickback scheme involving Ukraine’s state nuclear operator Energoatom. The ring was allegedly led by businessman Timur Mindich, a close associate of Zelensky, who fled the country hours before his properties were raided. The scandal led to the resignations of several high-ranking officials, including Energy Minister German Galushchenko, and Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andrey Yermak.
In January, NABU also exposed an alleged vote-rigging scheme involving more than 40 sitting MPs, who reportedly received cash bribes in exchange for legislative votes. A number of other corruption schemes have also come to light in Ukraine over the past several months.
Le Monde traced the 262-meter warship using satellite imagery guided by Strava data
A French Navy officer using a smartwatch and the Strava fitness app to track his running activity has exposed the location of the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, according to Le Monde.
President Emmanuel Macron deployed France’s only aircraft carrier toward Cyprus in response to the US-Israeli war against Iran, in which Tehran has targeted Western military assets in retaliatory strikes.
Le Monde reported on Friday that it was able to identify the approximate real-time position of the 262-meter warship through publicly available data from the Strava platform. By analyzing geolocation data from the young sailor’s public profile, the newspaper matched it with a satellite image from the European Space Agency showing the Charles de Gaulle and its accompanying strike group around 100 km off the coast of Türkiye.
The jogging route recorded on March 13 appeared as a zigzag pattern, suggesting the individual was running laps on the deck of a moving vessel, although the specific ship was not directly identified, the report said.
French sailor reveals position of aircraft carrier with his fitness app.
Security concerns regarding fitness apps and military personnel have been raised for years, particularly during overseas deployments. Strava, a San Francisco-based service launched in 2009, updated its privacy controls after a 2018 report found that its ‘Global Heatmap’ visualization feature unintentionally mapped multiple Western military installations.
The French Armed Forces General Staff described the latest case as a breach of operational security rules, Le Monde reported, adding that it identified several service members who shared location data or images from naval missions online.
While France has not joined the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran or committed its naval forces to escort missions in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked, it has still been impacted by the hostilities.
Drone attacks by Iranian-allied forces have been reported against at least two French military facilities in the Middle East, including in Iraq where one French soldier was killed and six others were injured.
The Central African state’s president has ordered the border with war-torn Sudan to be closed amid deadly incursions
Chadian leader Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno has ordered the army to retaliate against attacks from Sudan after a drone strike killed at least 17 people, including mourners, near the border between the two countries.
The border town of Tine was struck on Wednesday afternoon during a funeral gathering at a house. A resident cited by Reuters said two explosions hit the area, with casualties including children who had been playing nearby.
Chadian officials have blamed “Sudanese belligerents” for the strike, accusing them of seeking to destabilize the former French colony by “transferring their own intercommunal conflict” there.
At an emergency meeting in response to the incident, Mahamat Deby, appearing in full military uniform, described the attack as “outrageous” and a “blatant aggression” against Chad’s territorial integrity.
He warned that future assaults will not be tolerated and instructed the Chadian National Army to “respond to any attack, regardless of its source, whether from the Sudanese government or the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).”
The incident comes amid escalating violence linked to Sudan’s ongoing civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary RSF, which has spilled over into border regions. The fighting, which erupted in April 2023, has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions, according to the UN.
Recent weeks have seen a rise in drone attacks in western Sudan, including strikes on markets and civilian areas near the Chadian border. The organization Doctors Without Borders (MSF) has reported multiple incidents causing civilian casualties, including attacks that killed and injured dozens in Darfur.
Chad last month shut its eastern border with Sudan after five soldiers and three civilians were killed in clashes allegedly involving the SAF and RSF. At least 12 others were wounded in the incident, which also occurred in Tine, officials said.
On Wednesday, President Mahamat Deby ordered national defense and security forces to “secure the entire border between Chad and Sudan … and to deal firmly with any developments.”
Iran appears to be allowing certain vetted vessels to pass the chokepoint and is reportedly working on a standardized process
Iran has signaled that it is ready to allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz to vessels from certain countries. Media reports and tracker data also suggest that a handful of pre-vetted tankers have already sailed smoothly through the “safe” corridor, with at least one shipping company allegedly paying Iran $2 million.
The development comes as more than 15 tankers have been hit by drones and projectiles in the strait since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February.
As the Middle East escalation has roiled energy markets, the impact of a few tankers passing through has so far remained limited. Brent is still trading well above $100.
Here is what to know about the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
Who is allowed to pass?
In short, not everyone and not everywhere.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the strait is open to all except the US and Israel, while adding that some ships from “different countries” had already been allowed through. In practice, however, Western-linked vessels face significant hurdles in securing safe passage.
According to Lloyd’s List, India, Pakistan, China, Iraq, and Malaysia are discussing transit plans directly with Tehran, with officials in the first three countries as well as Türkiye confirming clearance.
The Financial Times reported, citing maritime data, that at least eight ships – including oil tankers and bulk carriers tied to India, Pakistan and Greece, as well as Iran’s own fleet – have sailed through the strait but used an unusual route around the island of Larak, which is close to the Iranian coast and where waters are much shallower than in the middle of the strait.
The actual number of ships – some of which may have turned off automatic tracking systems – could be higher, the report said.
According to the FT, at least nine Chinese oil and fuel tankers are also amassing in the Gulf, apparently preparing to traverse the Hormuz Strait.
Clearance is being granted on a case-by-case basis, Lloyd’s List reported, adding that the Iranian authorities are working on a “more formalized vessel approval process” expected in the coming days.
Is it free of charge?
On paper, international transit is not supposed to work like a toll road, but the current situation appears to be evolving under wartime conditions.
Lloyd’s List reported that at least one tanker operator paid about $2 million to transit, while saying it could not establish whether payments were made in other cases. It also remains unclear how such payments could be processed, given the sanctions on Iran.
In addition, several media reports indicated that Iran’s parliament was considering a bill aimed at taxing ships that cross the strait. The Wall Street Journal noted, however, that such a policy would “require a regional buy” from Iran’s Gulf neighbors.
What did Hormuz look like before the war?
Hormuz was one of the world’s busiest and consequential chokepoints, with an average of 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and oil products moved through in 2025, equal to around 25% of global seaborne oil trade. About 80% of the flows went to Asian countries, including China, India, Japan, and South Korea, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
About 93% of Qatar’s LNG exports and 96% of the UAE’s LNG exports also passed through Hormuz, representing roughly 19% of global LNG trade.
Before the war, around 138 vessels transited the strait daily; that figure has now dropped to roughly 3–5 ships per day, according to estimates.
The strait is just 29 nautical miles (54km) wide, with two-mile-wide inbound and outbound shipping lanes separated by a two-mile buffer. Ships using the Larak route must contend with shallower waters than in the central channel, though depths are still generally sufficient for most vessel types.
What impact is this having on energy prices?
The trickle of oil tankers is seemingly having a limited effect on the oil market, with Brent trading at $107 per barrel, down from a peak of almost $120. WTI crude slid from the $100 benchmark to $94.
European natural gas futures (TTF) slightly fell to €60 per MWh after spiking by more than 30% after Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field, triggering a retaliation on energy infrastructure in Qatar.
What does Europe have to say on Hormuz safety?
European leaders have demanded “the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” as well as “de-escalation and maximum restraint” from the belligerents. European NATO members, however, have been reluctant to send their navies to the strait. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that his country could help in keeping the shipping lanes clear only when the guns go silent.
What impact on the US?
As oil prices skyrocketed, gasoline prices in the US also soared, reaching $3.90 per gallon on average. US President Donald Trump has sought to downplay the market panic, saying he thought that oil prices would be “much worse,” adding that they were certain to come down once the hostilities end.
In addition, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that Washington could waive sanctions on the Iranian oil stranded on tankers in a bid to dampen prices. Earlier this week, he also said that the US had been allowing Iranian tankers to transit the strait “to supply the rest of the world.”
What does Moscow have to say on the Hormuz crisis?
The crisis does not directly disrupt Russian exports, and some analysts say Moscow could benefit from tighter global supply.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia “has been and remains a reliable supplier” of oil and gas, while warning that the country cannot fully escape the broader fallout. He added that Moscow had long warned of the risks of escalation in the Middle East.
The French president stressed that the Jewish state’s military operation violates international law and will not enhance its security
Israel’s ongoing military operation in Lebanon violates international law, French President Emmanuel Macron has said.
Speaking at a European Council press conference in Brussels on Thursday, Macron also criticized the attacks on Israel being carried out by Lebanese-based militant movement Hezbollah, which has vowed to avenge the US-Israeli killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Macron rejected the notion that a third party could resolve the conflict with the Iran-linked group through force, emphasizing that only Lebanese authorities have the legitimacy to address the issue.
“We don’t think that the fight against Hezbollah and the removal of its weapons can be carried out by a third power,” Macron told reporters. “We believe that Israel’s ground military operation and bombardments are inappropriate and even unacceptable in terms of international law and the interests of both the Lebanese and Israel’s long-term security.”
Macron also pointed out that Israel has conducted similar operations in Lebanon for years without ever producing the “expected results.”
The French leader’s comments come as Israel has expanded its military campaign against Hezbollah following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began late last month. The Israel Defense Forces announced “limited and targeted ground operations against key Hezbollah strongholds” earlier this week, escalating cross-border hostilities that have already claimed hundreds of lives.
Lebanese authorities report that Israeli strikes have killed over 880 people over the past two weeks, with more than 2,000 injured and over 1 million displaced. The strikes have targeted residential districts, a UN peacekeeping position, and a Russian cultural center in the southern city of Nabatieh.
On Thursday, RT correspondent Steve Sweeney and his cameraman Ali Rida Sbeity were also injured in what appeared to be a deliberate Israeli airstrike on their filming position, despite them wearing clearly labeled press uniforms.
Moscow has condemned Israel over the strike, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stressing that the attack on journalists wearing press markings “cannot be called accidental given the killing of two hundred journalists in Gaza.”
The leader oversaw assault exercises as 13-year-old Kim Ju-ae appeared to take the controls of an armored vehicle
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s daughter appeared to drive a tank as her father rode on top of the vehicle during large-scale drills.
Kim oversaw the offensive exercise showcasing joint infantry and armored advances, highlighting a focus on combat readiness, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Friday.
Footage released by KCNA showed Kim Ju-ae, believed to be about 13, with her head out of the driver’s hatch of a moving tank as her father sat on top with soldiers. Observers said her position indicated she was operating the vehicle.
The drills reportedly involved special forces units, armored elements from the general staff’s operational reserve and a tank company from a cavalry regiment.
They included a demonstration assault by a tank company equipped with the latest models of tanks, KCNA said.
Kim praised the new tank’s combat performance as “excellent” and said its development had taken about seven years, adding that ground forces would be widely equipped with the vehicles.
Kim Ju-ae’s presence at high-profile exercises has drawn attention as she is increasingly seen alongside the North Korean leader during key defense activities, including missile tests and weapons inspections.
Team Russia finished third at the 2026 Winter Paralympics in Italy, and athletes were awarded state honors for their performance
Five Russian Paralympians have been added to the ‘kill list’ run by Ukraine’s state-backed Mirotvorets website, which publishes the personal details of individuals it labels as ‘enemies’ of the state.
The athletes, placed on the list on Thursday, include alpine skier Aleksey Bugaev, and cross-country skiers Varvara Voronchikhina, Ivan Golubkov, Anastasia Bagiyan, and Sergey Sinyakin. They represented Team Russia at the 2026 Winter Paralympics in Italy and won eight golds, one silver, and three bronzes, placing the team third in the medal standings.
Mirotvorets has accused the athletes of “war propaganda” and “attacks on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” and being “complicit” in Russia’s alleged “crimes” against the country.
The website, which claims that it operates independently but is linked to Ukraine’s security services, has been branded a 'kill list' after multiple people featured on it were later murdered or died under suspicious circumstances. Each entry notably includes a “date of elimination” field beneath the subject’s birthdate.
Bugaev dismissed his inclusion in the database. “Honestly, I don’t care who added us or where. When you can’t beat us fairly in the sports arena, the only thing left to do is do things like this,” he told RT on Friday. Ukraine’s 25-athlete team finished seventh in the medal standings.
On Thursday, the five Paralympians, along with their coaches, received state awards from Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in recognition of their results and performance under sanctions and restrictions.
Moscow won an appeal against the International Ski and Snowboard Federation, which had continued to bar Russian athletes despite their full reinstatement by the International Paralympic Committee last year. The ruling allowed the team to compete under its own flag and anthem – played at a medal ceremony for the first time since 2014.
Mirotvorets has recently added numerous Russian and foreign figures accused of ties to the Russian government or of spreading pro-Russian views.
Russian officials have denounced Mirotvorets as extremist. Western media and institutions have also criticized the website, while human rights and press freedom groups have condemned it for publishing the personal data of journalists and civilians, warning that it poses threats to safety and due process.
Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field and Tehran’s response signal a shift from bombing bases to targeting the backbone of global gas supply
Israel’s recent strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field and Tehran’s retaliation on key energy infrastructure in several Gulf countries is more than just another escalation of the war roiling the Middle East.
What began as a campaign of decapitation strikes and base‑to‑base missile exchanges has escalated into dueling attacks on energy infrastructure that risks igniting a major energy crisis globally whose effects could reverberate for years.
RT takes a look at what this ominous development means for energy markets and how close the world may be to a full-blown crisis.
Here’s why these attacks matter globally
Although the natural gas reservoir housing South Pars is the world’s largest, Iran’s ability to export gas is limited by sanctions. Therefore, damage to the field or related facilities is mainly a domestic issue. The majority of the gas extracted from South Pars goes to the domestic market, although some is exported to Iraq and Türkiye.
Israel struck the South Pars field and the infrastructure that services it at the nearby Asaluyeh processing hub on March 18. Iran retaliated with strikes on Saudi Arabia, the UAE and, most critically, Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest LNG export hub.
More concerning globally is not the South Pars strike but the retaliatory attack against the LNG hub at Ras Laffan. This is where the gas from the North Field, which is the Qatari side of the same reservoir that South Pars taps, is processed. The North Field – also called the North Dome – is responsible for about 20% of global LNG supply, practically all of which is processed at Ras Laffan. Qatar has admitted that the attacks caused “significant damage.”
While the complex had already been largely shut since early March due to the war, analysts at Wood Mackenzie now warn that damage to the hub could delay any restart and “fundamentally reshape the global LNG outlook.”
Rising LNG prices would be particularly bad news for Europe, which has become heavily reliant on LNG in light of its rejection of Russian pipeline gas. Other major consumers of LNG include Japan, Türkiye, and India. The US, as a LNG exporter, would benefit from rising prices.
The damage could be long term
Importantly, unlike many other leading gas fields, the geologically unified reservoir feeding South Pars and the North Field is only at 10% depletion, meaning 90% of the gas is still there. The significance of this cannot be overstated. The gas from the world’s largest reservoir – and one expected to play a critical role in meeting future global demand – may not be extractable if the infrastructure on both sides is destroyed. This becomes an issue not just of near-term prices but the state of structural physical supply.
Any sustained disruption to Qatari production would reverberate across the global gas market. Losing even part of Qatari output for an extended period would tighten supply, drive prices higher, and leave import‑dependent economies scrambling for alternatives.
Unfortunately, alternatives may be scarce. The LNG market was tight even before the war. US LNG export capacity was already near its limits, meaning the country’s ability to offset lost Persian Gulf supply is constrained.
Meanwhile, repairing damaged LNG facilities is a highly complex and costly undertaking that could take years. Projects implemented in the Ras Laffan Industrial City cost $70 billion to build, according to Qatar News Agency.
So even if a ceasefire is reached today, the damage already sustained could reverberate for years.
Global markets under strain
Energy prices have surged due to the conflict in general and even more so in light of the attack on South Pars and the Iranian retaliation. This also comes as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery that carries about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil, remains essentially closed.
The South Pars-Ras Laffan strikes drove European benchmark gas prices up about 35% in a single day. Oil prices rose more than 5%. Tehran’s suspension of gas exports to Iraq and potential cuts to supplies for Türkiye threaten to tighten regional markets further, while Qatar’s warning that it may declare force majeure on long‑term LNG contracts – including deliveries to Europe and Asia – raises the prospect of a cascading supply shock.
🇪🇺 Gas prices in Europe have surged by up to 35% after Iran struck the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar.
Any prolonged outage at South Pars or Ras Laffan risks tightening markets dramatically. Market observers now warn that disruptions of this scale are likely to keep gas prices elevated for months rather than weeks. “These are physical supply changes… You can’t print molecules,” economist and former global head of commodities at Goldman Sachs Jeff Currie told Bloomberg.
Precisely for this reason, despite the surge in prices, some analysts argue that markets are still not pricing in more negative scenarios – some of which already seem to be coming to pass. Markets have thus far mostly been concerned with transportation risks and bottlenecks rather than long-term, structural supply constraints. If markets begin to see serious longer-term supply risks regardless of how long the war lasts, prices will surge further.
Where Russian energy fits in
Commenting on the latest developments, Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev has described the situation as a “tipping point,” writing on X that “the world understands the necessity of including Russian energy in a diversified energy portfolio for every country.” He also cautioned that EU gas prices in 2026 “will be more than double the original forecast.” President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow could halt gas supplies to the bloc ahead of Brussels’ planned 2027 ban.
The EU, already struggling with the consequences of its decision to sever energy ties with Russia over the Ukraine conflict, as well as its controversial green-transition policies, now faces a Middle East shock that few in Brussels seem to have factored into their planning. So far, Europe seems determined to stick to its rejection of Russian gas, but that commitment could waver if costs further mount.
The world understands the necessity of including Russian energy in a diversified energy portfolio for every country.
If you do not buy Russian energy, the Darwinian process of natural selection will take care of you. The EU will be a prime example for everyone to remember. pic.twitter.com/560Z33yDry
The US has already provided sanctions waivers for Russian energy in light of the conflict, a large concession given its strong-arming just a few months ago of countries such as India over purchases of Russian oil. Several Asian governments have already been scrambling to pick up Russian crude.
Could this become a full‑scale global energy crisis?
In many ways, it already is. The world’s largest gas field is under attack from both sides, while the Strait of Hormuz is practically shut. Major Gulf LNG and refining hubs have been hit or threatened, while US and NATO leaders are openly discussing military options to reopen shipping lanes.
Analysts warn of the risk that the Middle East war morphs into a full-blown energy crisis. Mohit Kumar, an economist at the investment bank Jefferies, noted in a client briefing, cited by CNN, that Israel’s decision to hit South Pars shows that, “as the war drags on, any red lines are likely to get blurred.” The question now is how long the world will be able to absorb repeated shocks to the system that keeps the lights on and economies running.
The latest OPEC+ production data, released on March 16, shows around 8.5 million barrels per day confirmed shut in across the Gulf, as per calculations by analyst Rory Johnston, representing 8% of global daily oil demand. By comparison, the oil immobilized by the 1973 embargo, which lasted for five months and saw no infrastructure destroyed, accounted for about 7% of global oil consumption. Nevertheless, the economic disruption reverberated for much of the rest of the decade.
What makes this escalation uniquely dangerous is that it threatens not just current flows, but future production capacity from one of the world’s most critical undepleted reserves.
Nearly 35 million South Asians in the Gulf support relatives back home. Now tanker strikes, drones, and missile debris are turning their workplaces into war zones
The escalating conflict in the Middle East has placed the nearly 35 million South Asian migrant workers living in the Gulf directly in the line of fire. At least 12 workers from the region have been confirmed killed so far.
From security guards at airports to delivery drivers on city streets, these workers are increasingly exposed to grave risks as the war expands into civilian residential and industrial zones. The war threatens the safety of a massive diaspora that serves as the economic backbone for millions of South Asian families.
Sitting on a sofa at Kandiwali in Mumbai, tears streaming down her face, 21‑year‑old Komal Singh, who cradles her mother’s head in her lap, is inconsolable.
All she can hold on to is her last conversation with her father, marine engineer Devanandan Prasad Singh, on the night of March 11 – just hours before he was killed when his ship caught fire off Basra, Iraq after a targeted strike.
“We spoke to him twice on March 11 at midnight. At one time, he said Tum log theek ho, main theek hoon (are you people fine, I am fine here). It was a brief conversation. But he again texted us at 2:36 AM and said the ship was on fire, that was our last contact with him,” Komal Singh, a medical student, said.
“We called and called, but there was no response. He did not reply. We tried calling the company numbers where he worked. None of them picked up, and later, one person answered and said he would call back at 9 am when the offices open. We then went to our neighbor, who is also a seafarer. He contacted his company, which told him that everyone from the ship was safe and had been rescued.”
Singh says that early in the morning of March 12, the company called back again, this time with devastating news, informing the family that her father died in the incident.
“We are heartbroken and do not know how to accept it,” Singh says, adding that her father took the voyage because her medical college fees were pending.
“We want a proper investigation into his death.”
The Indian Embassy in Iraq confirmed the US-owned crude oil tanker Safesea Vishnu, sailing under the Marshall Islands flag, was attacked near Basra, Iraq. While 15 crew members were evacuated, one person lost his life. “The remaining 15 Indian crew have since been evacuated to a safe place,” the mission said.
More than 1,100 km away from Mumbai, in Agloi village in Rajasthan’s Sikar district, grief hangs heavy in the air.
At Vikram Verma’s home, people have gathered to console the family after he was killed in Oman when an Iranian drone struck an oil-related facility in Sohar on March 11. The strike killed another Indian worker and left ten more people, also Indians, wounded.
The family is still struggling to come to terms with the loss.
According to his relatives, Vikram had left for Oman on February 23 to work in a construction company to help his poverty-stricken family back home, but little did they know that he would be killed. “A day before his death, we spoke to him on a video call. He did talk about the tension but said he was safe,” Verma’s uncle Mahesh said.
Vikram was supporting the education and medical expenses of his mother, who is suffering from ailments; the family had little idea that war would take him away from them.
“His death has left the family in uncertainty. We don’t know how they will carry on with the only earning hand taken away,” Mahesh said.
Another person who was killed in the incident was Pappu Singh, who lived in the nearby Lalpura village of Rajasthan. He, too, was working as a construction worker in Oman.
Indian migrant workers in the Gulf have been exposed to grave risks due to the ongoing war, which started on February 28. Indian officials say five of its citizens have been killed in the conflict so far, two in Oman, one in the UAE, one in Iraq, and one in Saudi Arabia.
There are 10 million Indian citizens living in the Middle Eastern countries, which is their largest diaspora. For their families in India, there is fear and anxiety.
“My brother works in Qatar in defense, and we are really worried about him,” Md Muneer, 32, a resident of Purnea district in Bihar, said.
‘Trapped in the nightmare’
For many workers from other South Asian countries, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal, who had traveled to the Gulf in search of better livelihoods, the conflict which spiraled after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by retaliatory attacks that have since spread across the Gulf region, is no longer distant. They and their families back home feel increasingly vulnerable.
Bangladesh has lost four workers to missile debris in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. Many others have been injured in the strikes. One Pakistani national has also been killed, and many have been wounded.
Dibas Shrestha, 29, was a cheerful young man from Borlang village in Nepal’s Gorkha district. Like millions of Nepalis, he moved to the UAE with a simple goal: To build a better future for the family he left behind.
“He was educated but couldn’t find a job at home; he instead took up a post as a security guard at Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport,” his father Cham Bahadur says.
Dibas’ social media was filled with photos in his uniform and messages to his parents, which gave a glimpse into the ordinary life of a migrant worker. In his last post, just hours before his death, he reflected on his fears about the conflict. Soon afterward, he was killed on duty when shrapnel from an intercepted missile struck him.
Back in Borlang village, his family is paralyzed by grief.
“We saw him in a video call last time where he said be home on leave in just two months and come home,” his father says.
In Nepal, more than 2 million citizens are employed in the Gulf, and remittance is essential to nearly one-fourth of Nepal’s GDP. For many Nepalis, these workers are the backbone of their survival, but now they fear being caught and becoming human cost.
Diaspora at risk
Human Rights Watch said in a statement that civilians in Gulf Cooperation Council countries are at grave risk from Iranian strikes in response to US and Israeli military attacks on Iran.
“Many of the Iranian attacks have struck civilian residential buildings, hotels, civilian airports, and embassies, and have unlawfully targeted civilian objects such as financial centers,” the statement said.
Since February 28, 2026, Israel and the US have carried out thousands of attacks across Iran. Iranian forces responded with waves of drone and missile attacks against Gulf states, striking in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
“Since February 28, Iran has launched thousands of drones and missiles against GCC countries, with the largest number striking the UAE. As of March 16, the attacks resulted in at least 11 civilian deaths and at least 268 injuries, with the majority of victims migrant workers, according to GCC government sources,” the statement said, adding that ten of those killed are foreign nationals.
In the UAE alone, expatriates comprise 88.5% of the total population, with 10 million foreign nationals as opposed to 1.3 million Emirati nationals. Indians are in the majority, comprising nearly 38% of the total population of the UAE. The rest include Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Filipinos, Nepalis, Sri Lankans, etc.
The Indian Foreign Ministry has said “the welfare and safety of India’s large diaspora in the region remain the government’s utmost priority,” and has set up control rooms that operate round the clock to attend to anxious calls from families.
The government says that Indian airlines were also operating several flights to transport stranded passengers to West Asia despite hundreds of other flights being grounded.
Back in their Kandivali home in Mumbai, Komal Singh sits surrounded by an uncertain future, wondering how her family of three, her brother and mother, will move forward without the man who held everything together.
“With our father no more, our back has been broken. We don’t know how to carry on without him.”
Millions of Muslims across Russia are celebrating Eid al-Fitr on Friday
Thousands of worshippers in Moscow joined millions of Muslims across Russia on Friday to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, the holiday marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan.
The largest gathering in the capital took place at the Moscow Cathedral Mosque, where religious leaders representing various Muslim communities led collective prayers.
Russia is home to more than 20 million Muslims. In Russia, the holiday is widely known by its Tatar name, Uraza-Bairam, highlighting the historical role of the Tatar people in the country’s Islamic tradition. The Moscow Cathedral Mosque – originally built in 1904 and rebuilt in 2015 as a larger complex capable of hosting up to 10,000 worshippers – has long been referred to locally as the “Tatar mosque.”
Senior Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, extended their greetings to Muslims marking the occasion. In his message, Putin said the holiday “has for centuries embodied believers’ pursuit of spiritual improvement, charity and compassion,” which he described as central to the religion.
Charitable giving, one of the core principles of Islam, is an important part of Eid al-Fitr.
Washington asked for permission to land warplanes on the island on March 4 and 8, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has told parliament
Sri Lanka refused to provide ground access to two US fighter jets earlier this month, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has told parliament.
Washington asked for permission to land the warplanes on the island on March 4 and 8, Dissanayake said on Friday.
“They wanted to bring in two warplanes armed with eight anti-ship missiles from a base in Djibouti to the Mattala International Airport and we said no,” the Sri Lankan president told parliament.
“We want to maintain our neutrality despite many pressures. We won’t give in. The Middle East war poses challenges but we will do everything possible to remain neutral.”
Sri Lanka also refused a request by three Iranian ships to go to the country on a goodwill visit, he said.
I met with US Special Representative for South & Central Asia, Amb. @SergioGor, today (19). We discussed strengthening US-Sri Lanka ties and I briefed him on Sri Lanka’s position on the Middle East conflict and its economic impact on our country. pic.twitter.com/p7VYHeG1qh
— Anura Kumara Dissanayake (@anuradisanayake) March 19, 2026
The statement comes a day after Dissanayake met with US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, Sergio Gor. The Sri Lankan leader posted on X that he conveyed the South Asian nation’s stance on the Middle East conflict to Gor.
Earlier this month, Sri Lanka said it allowed an Iranian warship to dock in the port of Trincomallee and rescued its 208 crew members, a day after the US sank another Iranian vessel off the island nation’s coast in an attack that killed at least 87 sailors.
The unarmed Iranian ship was returning from a naval exercise hosted by India. The US action was widely condemned for flouting international maritime norms.
A cargo plane has carried 29 tons of food tents and essentials to support hundreds of thousands affected by the natural disaster
Russia has delivered 29 tons of humanitarian aid to Mozambique, using a special aircraft operated by the country’s Emergencies Ministry, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported on Thursday.
The shipment was delivered on the orders of the President Vladimir Putin, the government and Russian Minister for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters, Alexander Kurenkov.
“The Il-76 aircraft delivered food supplies, essential items, as well as tents and blankets for the population affected by flooding in the African republic,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
The Emergencies Ministry said Russian rescuers provided assistance to Mozambique following the floods.
Late last year, heavy flooding in Mozambique developed into a humanitarian crisis after weeks of intense rainfall. The government declared a Red Alert on January 16, signaling urgent humanitarian needs as heavy rains caused rivers to overflow and flash floods across central and southern regions.
More than 650,000 people were affected, with tens of thousands of homes inundated and key infrastructure, including schools and health facilities, damaged, according to regional authorities. Regional bodies, including the Southern African Development Community (SADC), deployed emergency teams to support rescue and recovery operations.
In February, Russia provided humanitarian assistance to Madagascar after the island was hit by two powerful cyclones. The storms caused widespread flooding and damage, killing more than 60 people and affecting hundreds of thousands. Moscow provided 60 tons of food along with six trucks and two Mi-8 helicopters.
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